Windows 8 was a consumer-oriented OS, focused on touchscreen devices, released shortly after most businesses had just moved on from XP, and would have required massive retraining of the average workforce.
In that perspective, I think 200 millions is actually a surprisingly good number.
Also, many people avoided Vista because it was the release where Microsoft made significant improvements to their security model by showing (by default) UAC prompts every time the user installed software or did many other actions.
"...Microsoft made significant improvements to their security model by showing (by default) UAC prompts..."
Yes, it's similar to the unix model, but people using unix probably have a much better idea of what security means and what the risks are going in.
EDIT: I just realized that you may have said that sarcastically...
You wrote, > Getting people and businesses to upgrade again when they just did so in the past few years is a tougher sell. [...]Only in the past 3-4 months have the updated models from most manufacturers made it into stores ...[which serve as] reasons for people to actually want to buy a new PC.
Microsoft needs the Win8 upgrade so they can get revenue. They also needed to get new features into peoples' hands (security, new APIs including touch, etc). But the customers aren't crying out for these features, as seen by the continued demand for XP.
Apple needed the Mavericks upgrade so they could get new features (security, new APIs including tighter integration with iOS, etc). But like Microsoft's customers, Apple's customers aren't crying out for these features either.
Which is why Apple priced it for free, and was "rewarded" by huge uptake (in their much smaller installed base: according to this they are about even with Windows 8: http://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share....)
I don't know what Mavericks' penetration in the Apple base is but I would guess it's still under 15% if some articles from December are to be believed). Better than Windows 8, though: how big is the Windows upgrade market vs wait-for-a-new-PC market? I'd bet at this point the Windows upgrade market is close to nil.
Since Apple makes their profits from hardware and add ons (a few apps, plus the huge iTunes ecology) they can afford to do this. Microsoft cannot.
Unlike in the past, the OS upgrade cycle has shortened considerably thanks to mobile devices. People don't really mind upgrading their OS even though Windows users might be more reluctant than others. But I am sure that the Windows 8 user interface changes are the real reason why most people would not even want to upgrade.
Much of those segment are now diverted into iPads and low-cost Android tablets. Too bad Intel focused on 'ultrabook' instead of improving the Atom chip as fast as they could.
So they're the numerator, right? Then what's the denominator? It seems like that's tough to figure out. But I want to say something like, how many PCs were sold up until the release, and with what OSen?
I don't have an answer. I'm just curious because it's an interesting debate.
Win 8's UI is just. . . eeech. A year later and I still catch myself repeatedly slapping the cursor against the middle of the right side of the screen wondering why the hell it won't give me the charms bar.
* Windows 8: 200 million
* Windows 7: 300 million
* Windows Vista: ~128 million
* Windows XP: ~120 million (based on an IDC estimate, as Microsoft released few early sales figures for XP).
It looks to me like Windows 7 was the anomaly: a stronger PC market at the time, and 8+ years worth of computers running XP looking for an upgrade. Vista was not a realistic option mainly due to a lack of drivers at release, much higher system requirements, and absurd pricing-- up to $359 for a boxed copy. By the time Windows 7 came out, manufacturers had gotten around to creating the Vista drivers that'd also work in 7, computers that would've been sluggish in Vista could easily run 7, and the price of the OS was slashed.
Getting people and businesses to upgrade again when they just did so in the past few years is a tougher sell. The hardware available at the release of Windows 8 was pretty un-exciting too, which probably contributed to 2013's record-breaking decline in PC sales overall. Only in the past 3-4 months have the updated models from most manufacturers made it into stores -- touchscreens, new form factors and doubled battery life -- reasons for people to actually want to buy a new PC.