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Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by grellas on Monday December 02, 2013 @03:01PM (#6836109)
I am not a technology expert and I am not a marketing expert but, as a consumer, I have moved gradually over the years from using Amazon primarily for online book-buying to using it extensively for all kinds of retail buying needs. The Prime service has been central to that experience because human psychology appears to be perverse and something so small as "free" 2-day shipping, though not really free, seems to have given me ample incentive to buy from Amazon when I could just as easily have bought from someone else. I am not sure why exactly. It just proved the path of least resistance. Being fast, efficient, and reliable, it worked and makes me a reflexive Amazon customer. I buy books, DVDs, select grocery items, and quite an array of other things from Amazon that I could just as easily be buying from others and "free" delivery via Prime has been a major factor in shaping that habit for good or for bad as concerns whatever my true self interests may be in the buying choices. What is more, as video streaming has begun to supplant things such as DVDs, I have moved somewhat zombie-like into Amazon's Prime streaming service for the reason, among others, that I have developed my reflexive relationship with the company and have found it easy to try their other offerings before I will move to offerings of other vendors. Again, this has all been bundled with Amazon's Prime service, with which the company now packages a broad range of "free" streaming resources into the annual cost of the service.

If my experience is at all typical of other consumers, I would guess that Amazon's Prime strategy is central to its whole attempt to conquer worldwide retailing and therefore that amazing delivery capacity lies at its heart, whether instantly via things such as video streaming or highly expedited in the case of tangible products.

Now Amazon could continue to rest comfortably upon its existing accomplishments by which it has used third-party delivery services to achieve a big part of its goals. But it is not. Indeed, it is spending huge sums of money to build massive warehousing facilities all over the place in support of a long-term plan to achieve super-fast delivery. And, in doing so, it has abandoned its former (and highly effective) strategy of trying to avoid physical "presence" in the various states in order to avoid having to hold back sales/use taxes from its customers.

So, fanciful or not in their present state of technological development and in the present state of legal and regulatory tangles that might arise, drones of the type shown in Amazon's promotional materials can hardly be called a simple marketing ploy to divert attention from some otherwise critical publicity affecting Amazon or its founder. The huge benefits to Amazon as a universal retailer that might from such a delivery mechanism are stupendous and obvious. If it should prove unfeasible to gain these benefits owing to technological limitations, that is one thing. If regulators should attempt to freeze delivery mechanisms to current forms and bar new ones such as drones, that is yet another thing. Such barriers may prove insuperable and cause the effort to fail. But to accuse Amazon of not being ready, willing, and able to devote even vast resources to the potential use of drones as part of its broader strategy - and instead to be using this as a mere publicity stunt - is, in my view, to miss the obvious. Amazon has a long-term goal of becoming the primary shopping source for millions of consumers across a broad range of products. It wants to leverage technology in ways that help remove the physical-presence advantage used by traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. If it can do so by building vast warehouses and then finding a magic way of delivering products to consumers in ways that better what they can do by visiting the local retail store, why not go for it. And not just go for it but really go for it, with a massive investment of time, energy, and capital with the long-term view of using this strategy to achieve potential exponential growth over competitors.

Whatever else this is, it cannot be mere vaporware. The fact that its announcement may have been accompanied by conventional marketing hype and by what may have even been a cynical deal with news outlets to agree to promote it on a big shopping day only confirms the seriousness of the effort, in my view. People like to get excited about exciting possibilities. Steve Jobs knew that and his way of presenting has become legendary. Mr. Bezos has some of that same flair and, when combined with adept entrepreneurial skills, stands to make an amazing mark in the annals of commerce. He may win in the end or he may lose. But he is going for the big win and he is doing it with flair.

You may like what Amazon is doing or you may hate it but it can't be denied that it is bold, daring, and very real. The author here misses it altogether in suggesting otherwise.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by bandushrew on Monday December 02, 2013 @03:07PM (#6836157)
"Whatever else this is, it cannot be mere vaporware. "

I am unclear on why not, exactly? 4-5 years before it appears, with the obvious possibility that it never does for regulatory reasons, technology reasons....

At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along.

It is still a fantasy. A nice fantasy. I loved the idea. but, for now, just a fantasy.

Check back in 4-5 years (or 5-10 years?) when something has actually been delivered to the market, and lets have a glass of whiskey and be amazed at the futuristic technology.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by cynwoody on Monday December 02, 2013 @03:30PM (#6836285)
A startup in Australia, Flirtey,† has partnered with a university textbook seller to deliver books via hexacopter on/near campus. They are hoping to begin operation next March. When the drone arrives, the customer presses a button on their smartphone app, and the package is lowered down to them.

†http://www.damngeeky.com/2013/10/16/14713/parcel-drone-will-...

Video: http://vimeo.com/76606906

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by bandushrew on Monday December 02, 2013 @03:56PM (#6836461)
Yeah, that makes sense to me.

Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US.

it is a fantastic use of technology, I genuinely hope amazon manages to deliver.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by downandout on Monday December 02, 2013 @07:39PM (#6837706)
> Organising something like this in a controlled area like a campus must be a few orders of magnitude simpler than organising something like this across the US.

Not necessarily. When a new address comes up, a human operator might takes a look at a satellite image of the address and give the drone an appropriate location to land on the property. That data would then be stored. 15 seconds with a human, one time only, is all it would take to make this easy in most neighborhoods.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by VolatileVoid on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @03:48AM (#6839299)
That's not at all the problem.

What about navigating TFRs? Class B airspace? What about failures of the rotors whilst flying over heavily populated areas? Will these things be equipped with TCAS to avoid oncoming traffic? What happens if the path-finding algorithm to get from Amazon's warehouse to your house goes batshit insane and flies it in the approach path to LAX? Who files the flight plan for each of these things?

To quote Steve Yegge, "people will die... if it's YOU... you're going to be really pissed off." [0]

[0] http://steve-yegge.blogspot.co.uk/2009/04/have-you-ever-lega...

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by annnnd on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @07:13AM (#6839798)
Not to mention UFOs. And as someone said, the drones would make archery a very popular sport again. ;)
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by silverbax88 on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @10:42AM (#6840885)
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by danabramov on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @04:11AM (#6839350)
Thanks for the link, I re-read it with much pleasure.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by kgen on Monday December 02, 2013 @09:18PM (#6838075)
It wouldn't even need a human operator from Amazon, I would gladly put a marker on a map to show the drone exactly where to drop it if it prompted me upon adding a new address/checkout.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by Crito on Monday December 02, 2013 @11:19PM (#6838457)
This would also solve the "That nice flat spot in my backyard is where I installed a swimming pool a few months ago" problem.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by downandout on Monday December 02, 2013 @10:38PM (#6838318)
Very good point.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by durrrrrrr on Monday December 02, 2013 @07:58PM (#6837792)
If everyone has to go to a certain place to get these items, we could invent a revolutionary new idea.

The shop.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by foobarian on Monday December 02, 2013 @10:55PM (#6838367)
You joke, but why not? Rent a small shop and put a landing pad on the roof, which then feeds a vending machine as the storefront. That also solves the authentication problem since it's easy to require a credit card swipe or a smartphone ping to dispense the package.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by durrrrrrr on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @12:05AM (#6838642)
Because this is a different invention.

The post office.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by intelliot on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @04:43AM (#6839429)
The post office also ought to use this technology to make mail delivery faster. Today, sending a letter across town takes days, but with drones perhaps it could take minutes.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by infinotize on Monday December 02, 2013 @09:54PM (#6838187)
You might even get to talk to a human while you're there!
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by melling on Monday December 02, 2013 @04:30PM (#6836668)
I don't think the technology can be that futuristic if companies are already raising money and have products.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rakeshsharma/2013/11/26/growing-...

http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/26/3d-robotics-raises-30-milli...

Granted the ability to deliver directly to homes may face years of legal issues, like self-driving cars. However, there are plenty of problems that can be solved today by current technology, or products that are 12-24 months out, where you don't need FAA approval, like in agriculture.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by ansible on Monday December 02, 2013 @04:05PM (#6836517)
At this point I wouldn't call it vaporware, its not that far along.

Most of the technology to do this is in place now. I won't try to argue that the current generation technology is actually cost-effective for drone delivery, but flight control, navigation, collision avoidance, etc., all exist in some form now. A hexacopter has some robustness (it can be designed to still fly with a single motor failure).

Most of the hurdles now are regulatory and economic. I don't know if those can be effectively surmounted, but if anyone can do it, I'm sure Amazon can.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by steveklabnik on Monday December 02, 2013 @04:31PM (#6836669)
All of the technology for Duke Nukem Forever was available. People are just as much of a problem with vaporware products. With the drones, Amazon will have to deal with the tech in various forms, the people problem (shooting them down, capturing them, stealing packages, etc), and the regulatory problem.

Five years is an _eternity_ in Internet Time.

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by tomkarlo on Monday December 02, 2013 @05:12PM (#6836950)
Yeah, but it's not very long at all in Retail Time.

It's taken us 20 years from Amazon coming online to Internet sales eclipsing retail holiday sales (which I believe is projected for this year.)

Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by intelliot on Tuesday December 03, 2013 @04:45AM (#6839437)
Excellent point. 5 years ago, bitcoin didn't exist. It has come a long way and it has been a long time in Internet Time. Amazon launched in 1994 but it hasn't been very long in Retail Time.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by baddox on Monday December 02, 2013 @10:51PM (#6838354)
Why do you consider a 5 year development period to be so long that we should consider it only a fantasy today? I might say that of a product that was promised in something like 25 years, but come on, video games take 5 years to develop. Five years is nothing.
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by froo on Monday December 02, 2013 @04:36PM (#6836704)

  > so small as "free" 2-day shipping
The speed is not something that can be underestimated. I recently ordered from an online store here in Australia and it's been over a week since I made the order. They haven't even processed the order yet (not the first time this has happened to me).
Re:First Victim of Amazon Drones: The Credibility of CBS and... by r00fus on Monday December 02, 2013 @05:50PM (#6837181)
However, I get effective 2-day delivery from Newegg (ground in CA). When it comes to buying random tech accessories I don't buy from Amazon primarily anymore.

Amazon is the king of shipping speed, but some aren't too far behind.