Threading the locks have been integrated into Java from the beginning, with every object having a monitor and functions like wait() and notify(), and a synchronized keyword. These are nice, and do help, but they don't solve the problem. I've heard that Java fixed up some problems with these in version 1.5 or 1.6, but haven't looked at the details.
My understanding is that none of the imperative languages are very good at multicore. Erlang is said to be effective at it (because of pure message passing); and some people claim FP will help because it overcomes the problem of shared state by making it immutable (while this is true, I'm not convinced it's particularly helpful in large projects, in practice).
So I'm interested in your reasoning.
Without a memory model you're going to be writing more code that is less correct at a substantially higher cost. If you're interested in this google for a Google Tech Talk by Josh Bloch on 'Java Memory Model'. This basically comes down to my ability to get at architecture specific stuff (CAS, fencing) in a platform independent way and have it work. Cliff Click has a really neat tech talk on writing a lock-free hash table in Java, don't bother trying to write it in C++.
Ultimately we will need a better model for concurrency, which will be some combination of functional programming and lightweight processes (actors). Erlang/Scala/Clojure/Haskell are in the right neighborhood (maybe Gambit Scheme, don't know much about it), but Erlang and Haskell are really hard to teach to mere mortals like myself. I don't know enough category theory to understand 'hello world' in Haskell, but I can write Scala and Clojure programs that work (and leverage my existing investment in the JVM).
edit: i left off something imporant. if anything saves imperative programming it will be transactional memory, which is exremely hard. hardware TM and code written for TM are in a chicken-and-egg situation. the answer is hybrid hardware/software TM and the sun guys are way ahead on this too.
What's interesting is STM is only hard in imperative languages. It's relatively straightforward in Clojure and Haskell. See http://enfranchisedmind.com/blog/posts/the-problem-with-stm-...
http://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1410000/1400228/p40-cascaval...
Edit: Prettier version http://mags.acm.org/communications/200811/?folio=40&CFID...
<brag>Now seems like a reasonable chance to brag that Doug Crockford signed my copy of BC the other day! God I'm such a geek.</brag>
No, just Haskell. Learning Erlang is roughly on par with learning Javascript well; it may involve a couple of new paradigms (like Javascript imposes event-oriented programming and prototypes, which may be new to you), but the language itself is straightforward. Different, but straightforward. The concurrency may blow your mind, but the syntax and basic mode of operation is unlikely to do so, in contrast to Haskell.
Don't be scared away from Erlang.
Incidentally, I have an entertaining alternative theory, that silicon will becomes specialized in the way that organs in the body are (and firms), perhaps mimicking the architecture of large programs which have intercommunication patterns that are established and predictable. A games examples: a Lua CPU, a physics CPU, an AI CPU. The Enterprise is even more ripe for this, as they have been trying to separate architectural components with SOA (which is a form of concurrency). It doesn't seem to have gone well, but something may have been learned there. Another example of large-scale concurrency is the internet: perhaps replicate a google server farm on a chip?
These ideas are a bit horrific, because they are horribly inefficient through standardizing on large scale components, so we lose the opportunity to optimize between them. But they work.
For any long-running process the JIT is going to turn your Java (Clojure, Scala, ...) into extremely well-optimized machine code. In fact, the amount of knowledge that the JIT has about the actual run time behavior of the software allows it to do better optimizations than you ever could by hand in certain situations (an ever-growing number of situations).
GC is another point, the HotSpot GC is arguably faster at allocating small, short-lived objects than malloc is. It is reeeaaaaallllyyy good these days, probably the best GC that you'll find in production just about anywhere these days. The thing is a monster. And the new one, the G1 collector, was sent from the future by SkyNet to kill John Conner.
Add to this the fact that you can easily exploit common multiprocessing patterns (thread pool, consumer/producer) with almost no code, and that advanced multiprocessing code can be written in a platform independent way, and it's a pretty small subset of applications that still make sense to write in C++.
Add to all of that the fact that even Java (let alone all the other amazing JVM languages) are orders of magnitude more productive than C++ for your programming staff, and the set of situations in which it makes sense to use C++ rather than the JVM is looking pretty tiny.
Oh and then there's portability. C++ isn't even portable across compilers (versions of the same compiler!), and for all the early trouble with Java portability, it really is write-once-run-anywhere now. Really.
Java has many benefits as you mention, especially ease of development, and I think these are what drive its adoption rather than any multicore benefit. So, I accept your (a); and (b) certainly has some truth, but I doubt the causality of (c).
The stats (terribly unreliable) show that C and C++ combined are ahead of Java, and the proportions are fairly static (C and C++ are steady, but Java is itself being javaed by even easier languages like Python (which incidentally supports my reasoning above): http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.... (about as reliable as a slashdot poll, but it's probably basically right).
I would respectfully contend that outside of micro-benchmarks (which kill Java because of long startup time and no chance to JIT) that Java is as fast as C++, and in the presence of lots of cores probably faster. This is again based in large part on my direct anecdotal experience, I would be very interested to hear about everyone else's experience in the matter.
But the real point is that with Moore's law now working on cores instead of mhz, single-threaded performance just doesn't matter that much going forward. Exponential increase and all that.
For a look at where this shit is going take a look a look at Azul.
You're making an interesting case. I haven't heard any claim that Java actually is faster than C++ in practice, just that it theoretically could be, because of JIT optimizations (then again, I don't think C/C++ is used that much in the server, anyway.) I also haven't heard of Java getting a comparative advantage due to multicore, just that FP would. But that's not to say it isn't true. You could be right. Interesting.
(The link seems to be commodity computing, like Sun blade servers).
On further investigation of a 150 million element dataset, Java was performing 1/3 again as many instructions, but missing cache half as much. I've been spending some time looking at all the JVM performance optimisations, but I still haven't worked out why this is - a random binary search isn't exactly a test case that's run time optimisation-specific. It's fascinating stuff, anyway.
+1 thoughtful and respectful debate.
edit: on iPhone so I can't post the link, but the comments section of cliff's blog has a discussion about java vs. C for this data structure. summary: maybe you could do it but it would be tricky and extremely non-portable, I.e. almost definitely not worth it. hope I didn't overstate, wasn't trying to dismissive (need to watch my language online).
Click was probably talking about the fact that Java has a consistent and defined memory model. C and C++ have no such memory model, but there always is one. It's just the memory model of the underlying architecture - which is sometimes extremely subtle.
However that being said, the real reason why Clojure is going to become the most important Lisp is the same reason why Java has been displacing the theoretically-faster C++: multicore.