But Android wouldn't be (OS) fragmented if you had 90%+ of the user population on Jelly Bean 4.1+

iOS isn't going to fragment - the vast majority of the user base will immediately upgrade to iOS 7.

You're probably right. But Marco's argument hinges on the idea that:

- there will be fragmentation

- hence it will be difficult for developers to write apps that make the most of iOS6 and iOS7

- hence this is an opportunity for nimble new players to enter the market and capture the iOS7 userbase

I agree that there probably wont be fragmentation, but the point is, Marco is saying if there was, it will be a brilliant opportunity. Therein lies the mental gymnastics.

I think he's more saying that people will be reluctant and/or unable to completely rethink their apps design and functionality and this will present an opportunity for new developers who build things that are uniquely suited to iOS 7 and beat the old slow-moving incumbents.

Marco's first bullet point is:

"Most [developers] can’t afford to drop support for iOS 6 yet. (Many apps still need to support iOS 5. Some unlucky souls even need to support 4.3.) So they need to design for backwards compatibility, which will be extremely limiting in iOS 7."

That's because you are framing the issue as something it's not. It's not fragmentation in the same sense as Android. 93% of apple devices are on the latest iOS version. Right around 30% of Android devices run the latest major release. The number is actually quite a bit lower if you start to consider point releases. Even worse is the fragmentation caused by different vendors and chipset manufacturers writing different libraries and drivers. See libstagefright, which has major differences across different devices even if it's the same version of the OS, for example different native pixel formats are supported by different vendors so writing any kind of a custom protocol video streaming app on Android is a stone cold bitch to get working across devices at 60 fps and that's only targeting 4.0+. It gets way worse when you include older versions that may or may not have libStageFright (most 3.0+ have it but a few don't). I'm familiar with video and audio the most but other areas have the same issue.

Contrast that to iOS, sure different API's get added but at least the same versions of the os behave the same across devices. Sure for a very short time iOS will be split between versions but that will be exceedingly short and you'll never have the true fragmentation problems that Android has in iOS.

He's not saying it's a great thing for users - he's saying it's a great thing for developers looking to enter a crowded space, because there will be some room to enter the market targeting only iOS 7 while established players are figuring out how to juggle the multiple OS versions.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the author. Marco talked down on Android for years because of its fragmentation. It's just hypocritical that it's only good if it happens on iOS.

In one of the Google IO talks, Google has been encouraging developers to develop only on 4.0 and above. To quote, "go to where the puck is going" and "develop the best app possible for every phone".

The point that others are making in the thread is this:

If you are an independent iOS developer looking to hit a majority of devices, just develop for iOS 7 - pretty much everyone will be on that in a year.

If you are independent Android developer looking to do the same - you need to target at least ICS, Jelly Bean and Gingerbread to get a 90%+ market share. (And with Gingerbread support comes ActionBar Sherlock and other fun stuff). I'm in the middle of this right now for my app, and hating it.

When the iOS version adoption looks like the first table in the following page, then you'll have a fair point: http://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html

iOS's 'fragmentation' between ios6 and 7 is totally different than androids because its temporary. There'll be a few month period where established apps haven't updated their ui. iOS has insanely quick (in comparison to other OSes) adoption rates. 15% of devices upgraded to ios6 within 24 hours of release, 50% two weeks out, etc.[1]

So there will be apps with the old ui for people running ios7 who will decide to look for a new thing to do X for the first time in years and thus a market opportunity. Whereas with android, the problem is that phones overwhelming remain on the OS they shipped with. It's not a matter of waiting 3 weeks for a fitting ui, it's that you have to develop for a 1-3 year old OS or write off half the market. [1] lost url because I'm writing this on ios7 and it's pretty goddamn buggy, but it looks like others have provided it

"iOS's 'fragmentation' between ios6 and 7 is totally different than androids because its temporary."

Says who? This change is much more major and, despite what Gruber and Marco would like to have you believe, is not design perfection personified, and is likely to be polarizing.

Let's forget about the z-axis and new interface updates, there are some major new features in iOS 7 that I'm sure a lot of people will want to upgrade to within the first month. (I predict faster adoption for 4/4s/5 users than we saw in iOS 6)

In decreasing order of importance (my opinion)

o Pre-Launch background Updating (Finally!) - I spend 3-5 minutes, every morning, and another 3-5 minutes, every night, downloading my Podcasts before my walk home. Annoying. Now, in theory - they'll download for me in the morning and night. Awesome - particularly as my iPhone 5 is happily sitting in an elevation dock at 100% power for most of the day, or plugged in at home for most of the night. It Will be interesting to see what developers do with notification launched background apps - hopefully it won't be abused.

o Airdrop for iPhone (Finally! How many times have I wanted to get a file/image/content off my iPhone onto my Laptop just before a plane took off)

o Swipe Control Center - another "Finally" - getting closer to android parity/rooted iPhone parity - I tweak the brightness/lock rotation/pause/play music and settings pretty often. This will length the lifespan of my home button (double click + swipe left to currently get lock + music settings)

o Enhanced Camera/photo management - looks really nice - lot of people will like this - even the die-hard Camera+/Instagram/Flickr/Google+ photo types. I do feel kind of bad for Camera Noir - their window was pretty meager. :-(

o iTunes radio - particularly for all of us who already subscribe to iTunes Match.

o Advanced Siri - I use Siri many times a day, looking forward to this.