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Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by amichail on Sunday April 26, 2009 @11:48AM (#580045)
Why is it ok for black people to vote for Obama because he is black? Isn't that equally racist?
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by Alex3917 on Sunday April 26, 2009 @11:59AM (#580059)
On a moral level it's equally bad, but on a social level it's less bad. The reason being that there are fewer black voters than white voters, so the effect of racist black voters on the election is much less. If all of our elections were decided by black people voting for bad candidates because they were black then you'd probably hear a lot more about it.
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by bokonist on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:09PM (#580072)
If all of our elections were decided by black people voting for bad candidates because they were black then you'd probably hear a lot more about it.

That's exactly what happened in a bunch of major cities ( Detroit, Newark, Baltimore, Washington DC ), and a major reason why those cities are in such bad shape. Read about Coleman Young for a taste of this history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coleman_Young

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by omnivore on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:39PM (#580109)
Corrupt mayors aren't the only reasons those cities languished. You lose banks, big box retailers at a time when people still shopped at them and have a rise in crime due to all of the jobs being shipped to the suburbs and your cities would go to hell in a handbasket too.

Corrupt mayors didn't help, but let's not act as if this was some sort of problem that was borne solely out of poor management.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by bokonist on Sunday April 26, 2009 @03:52PM (#580355)
People left the cities because of the rise in crime. Crime can always be prevented by a reasonably effective government. Read this book to get a sense of what happened in Brooklyn: http://www.amazon.com/Canarsie-Italians-Brooklyn-Against-Lib... The same story was repeating itself across the country.
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by Alex3917 on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:13PM (#580076)
oops, I meant to say presidential elections, sorry. You are correct though.

Interestingly, if there are more racist white voters than racist black voters, the racist black voters actually improve the quality of the decision because each racist black vote cancels out a racist white vote. This makes the best candidate more likely to win the election, because the best candidate has fewer votes to make up. (Unless the racism helps them, in which case it doesn't matter.)

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by amichail on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:20PM (#580085)
What does "quality of the decision" mean? Does that concept even apply to a democracy?
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by Alex3917 on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:56PM (#580137)
If you are going to define the best decision as the decision made by the majority, then no. But let's say for the sake of argument that one leader can be better than another independent of the decision made by the majority.

Let's create a model to look at how this works. Say there are 30 voters. 6 of those voters are racist; 4 only vote for whites, 2 only vote for blacks. Of the remaining 24, all try to vote for the best candidate, but are only able to successfully determine the best candidate 52% of the time.

So there are 24 voters trying to choose the best candidate.

Without the racist black voters, the black candidate starts out at -4 votes.

With the racist black voters, the black candidate starts out at -2 votes.

With or without the racist black voters, each candidate needs 16 votes total to win. (A simple majority of the original 30.) Now let's assume the black and white candidates are equally likely to be the "best" candidate. Given that a voter trying to choose rationally is likely to choose correctly 52% of the time, we can see that the system with the racist black voters would choose the correct candidate a much higher percentage of the time if we were to run the simulation 10,000 times.

edit: I actually tried this in excel, and the results were quite interesting. 52% is way too low though, rather try 60% instead. What we see is that without racist black people, the best candidate essentially never wins.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by amichail on Sunday April 26, 2009 @01:30PM (#580188)
Using your reasoning, wouldn't it also make sense for non-racists (of any race) to vote for the minority candidate not because he/she is better but rather to combat the racism of the majority?
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by Alex3917 on Sunday April 26, 2009 @01:43PM (#580203)
My reasoning was descriptive, not prescriptive.
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by space_cowboy on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:48PM (#580125)
So a white racist vote = 'bad decision' but a black racist vote = 'less bad decision'?
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by arrrg on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:53PM (#580130)
Nah, white racist vote = bad decision in one direction, black racist vote = bad decision in the opposite direction. If – in a two party system – there are about the same on both sides those bad decisions cancel each other out.

Bad decision in the sense that race played a role where it shouldn’t. This works only in two-party systems like in the US.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by sachinag on Sunday April 26, 2009 @11:52AM (#580050)
You know that the Democratic party lost the south because of race? I mean, Strom Thurmond, of all people, used to be a Democrat.

And Obama didn't lock up the black vote until white Iowans voted for him. Hillary was winning the national black vote 2-1 until after he won the caucuses. The evidence is pretty clear that black people don't just blindly vote for other black people - they vote in their self-interest, and until Obama seemed credible, their self-interest was to vote for Hillary.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by omnivore on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:45PM (#580119)
The parties flipped. Blacks were heavy Republican voters due to Lincoln until the 1950s when it started to shift. Edward Brooke, the first black US Senator since Reconstruction was a Massachusetts Republican.

Things didn't really shift until the Civil Rights Acts in the 1960s were passed, coupled with Great Society programs of Johnson, that put blacks in the Democratic camp for good and sent Dixiecrats to the GOP.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by aswanson on Sunday April 26, 2009 @01:10PM (#580161)
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by amichail on Sunday April 26, 2009 @11:54AM (#580053)
So given two credible candidates, they would vote based on race. This makes sense as it is based on self-interest.

But one can make a similar self-interest argument for white people voting based on race also.

The question is when does self-interest turn into racism and whether the notion of racism even applies to voting.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by whughes on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:22PM (#580088)
Isn't that a straightforward question? Self-interest turns into racism when the candidate voted for is not the best candidate. If you vote for an inferior candidate on the basis of race, then you are not acting on your own self-interest. I use the terms "best" and "inferior" to refer to the candidate's benefits to the specific voter.
Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by omnivore on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:43PM (#580114)
I think it's more an issue of voting for one's self-interest, rather than say, voting for a particular race. It's why for instance, GOP Chair Michael Steele didn't win a senate race in Maryland over a white candidate.

It's not so much about voting for race, as much as it's voting for a candidate that is more likely to understand your experience and as a result, will be "thinking of you" as he or she makes decisions.

It explains why so few minorities (Specifically, blacks) have made it to the Senate since Reconstruction.

Re:Nate Silver: Does race affect votes? by socjus on Sunday April 26, 2009 @12:26PM (#580090)
It's racist but that doesn't mean it's not ok, like affirmative action.