Re:Poll: How old are you?
by tokenadult on Sunday March 15, 2009 @06:38PM
(#517350)
I think Professor Velleman promotes "Voluntary response data are worthless" as a slogan for the same reason an earlier generation of statisticians taught their students the slogan "correlation does not imply causation." That's because common human cognitive errors run strongly in one direction on each issue, so the slogan has take the cognitive error head-on. Of course, a distinct pattern in voluntary responses tells us SOMETHING (maybe about what kind of people come forward to respond), just as a correlation tells us SOMETHING (maybe about a lurking variable correlated with both things we observe), but it doesn't tell us enough to warrant a firm conclusion about facts of the world. The Literary Digest poll
http://aurora.wells.edu/~srs/Math151-Fall02/Litdigest.htm
is a spectacular historical example of a voluntary response poll that didn't give a correct picture of reality at all.