You'd lose that bet. There are a variety of different methodologies and areas studied.
Companies that embrace remoteness from the start (like GitHub) seem to be doing fine, precisely because they treat remoteness as an asses, not a minor concession someone had to make to workers.
Again - not trying to argue at all that people cannot be fantastically successful as a distributed team.
What I am saying is that every single piece of research I can find says that colocated teams are more effective. This is... interesting... to me.
How much of it was looking at teams that are "super distributed", for example, between the US and India, where major differences in time and culture can play a huge role compared to say, a team distributed between Chicago and New York?
http://possibility.com/Misc/p339-teasley.pdf
http://kraut.hciresearch.org/sites/kraut.hciresearch.org/fil...
This one does not seem to involve developing software:
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjourna...
Remaining two articles are not publicly accessible.