It's not about the weights, it's about inference. Banning American inference providers from serving "non-vetted" models would surely bring a lot of customers back to OpenAI and Anthropic. Just when they go public.

Nvidia is not the proximate provider of open weight inference. That’s Nvidia’s customers, cloud compute services like AWS. If there was a move to ban open weights models, I am pretty sure these companies would howl much louder to the government than Nvidia, and they’re arguably more influential as a group.

They will make the penalty so severe that anyone who doesn't cover their trail will get the book thrown at them

I'm pretty sure that information cannot be considered contraband in the United States due to its First Amendment protections

Assuming the administration abides by the constitution

They'll lock down hardware and control who gets to use AI GPUs.

Nvidia is just about the only company that's both a monopoly and captured most of the value.