I unironically believe that bitcoin -- and, downstream, the memestock -- have everything to do with this.

Old-school fundamentals are laughed at or handwaved away. FOMO rules the day. "If Anthropic is the first to AGI, it'll take over every industry and go to the moon!"

Sure, and if it isn’t, investors just flushed a freight train loaded with dollar bills down the world’s largest toilet.

the question is: who will rise in the ashes of the bust, in a world of abundant compute availability and an upgraded power system?

Do we have an upgraded power system? I'm all for reforming our electrical infrastructure, but what I'm hearing is that we've got creaking infrastructure and the "supplement" is huge generators towed outside the datacenter...

gigantic order books for gas turbines and power grid infra, unless projects get cancelled, massive additional capacity is coming, yes.

Nobody is buying these companies because they believe that the company is valuable. They are buying these stocks because they believe that the stock may be more valuable tomorrow than it is today. Whatever the company behind the stock does or does not do, really doesn't matter. AI glitters like gold today.

Yet to be seen if it tarnishes.

>"If Anthropic is the first to AGI, it'll take over every industry and go to the moon!"

Meanwhile the hyper advanced software company's shitty electron app still flickers so bad on a high refresh monitor that it should require an epilepsy warning. I'll never understand the love for Anthropic, they legitimately have the worst software I have used outside of Microsoft.

What the hell is 15% adjusted margin? Lots of mathmagic there I guess...

The real number with standard accounting rules is a loss of $567 million (-3% operating margin). But they're adding in "Stock-based compensation expense" (~$1B) and "Non-cash charitable contributions" (~$2B), and they end up with a profit of $2.5 billion.

If you want to know whether the business is hemorrhaging money and will soon be bankrupt, excluding funny money they printed at no cost to themselves is perfectly sensible. Of course for the IPO investors, who're being asked to buy that funny money for real cash, it's a bit concerning if they give away so much of it to other people for less.

To be fair, that loss includes over $20b from instruments like convertible notes. They're not equity, so the increase in their value has to be reported as a loss. But in the context of this IPO, they will behave like equity, and just turn into stock. That's not money anthropic will pay, it will just dilute investors during IPO.

Reporting an increase in the value of the company as a loss is weird, but they have to do it. this is a case where adjusted earnings give a better idea of how the business is going.

But looking forward, when they want to buy new compute they will need to start deploying real cash instead of convertible notes, no?

So even the convertible notes loss isn't a real loss, doesn't it predict the post IPO losses they will have?

It's going to skyrocket. :DDD

As the page says, almost 22bn of that is a book loss due to share price increase.

So their loss is actually small compared to revenue.

And buying too!