This just isn't true. NVDA's price/earnings ratio is 22, which is less than MSFT.

Their P/E ratio is lower than in 2020 (before AI got rolling, and way below their 2023 peak.

If anything - based on current sales alone - NVDA is undervalued.

I’m not sure that Hardware has the same moat as Service/Platform.

If (it’s a big if), NVDA get leapfrogged in hardware capability it will be trivial for the next generation of deployments to stop using them entirely (Google and Microsoft are already developing custom inference chips, as are others)

I don't think this is true. AMD's hardware, on paper at least, offers the same or better performance than Nvidia. Eg the Mi355x vs B300 is close. The former released before Nvidia's GPU.

The same story goes back for years and years in consumer hardware too. AMD GPUs often had more raw compute capability, but fell short in actual game performance (or other applications).

Nvidia's moat is, at least partially, the software to make the hardware useful.

This is a great point I overlooked, thanks.

The hyperscalers are one story but research/consumer/“Everyman” inference is likely very different.

>NVDA is undervalued

i would like to, but won't/can't buy their overpriced crap -> they're losing a customer -> they're doing something wrong -> their valuation is just about 0 to me, ballpark estimate

Obviously he talks about stocks

Nvidia is king of circular financing. peak accrual earnings include non-cash items and demand Nvidia is funding itself. On a cash (real actual reality) basis the multiple is 33 to 50

the 5T is crazy to me.