They can't even stop one company from selling physical chips to China, yet somehow they're going to prevent anybody from running open models? I don't know, it doesn't seem likely to me.

there will be divergence: US-aligned world (NATO+Korea+Japan and other vassal states) will bend over and agree to whatever regulation Department of Commerce/State is cooking to ban open weight (Chinese) models.

the rest of the world will be starved of GPUs and chipmaking equipment and chemical supplies for chip making

Agreed. And it would damage Nvidia if they went along with this.

fall of nvidia is acceptable collateral damage, they are just hardware vendor. all their chips are made by TSMC anyways. And they can be replaced by OpenAI's inhouse chips or googles TPUs, made in the same TSMC factories.

no biggie if their valuation will deflate a bit just like Cisco did in 2000.

pure-software business like openai/ant, will be protected and their global market will be protected

If anyone can make chips like Nvidia, why isn't another company doing it already? Anything can sound easy if you reduce it enough, but I really don't see how it is that easy in practice.

its not easy, but google and amazon are doing that, openai is working on that, others will follow

Indeed, If the CCP stays stable long enough they'll (as a country) succeed at it.

Not because they care about the rest of the world, they care about their own domestic market/sales though.

They successfully re-invented half of modern consumer tech inside China already, the the US closes a market, it hurts them for a few years then they close that gap.

For decades it's been "Yeah they closed the Gap on X but we have Y" then "Yeah they closed the gap on Y but we have Z" and Z starts to look pretty uncertain.

At a certain point you have to realise that with enough capital and people you can do the things that the other people with enough capital and people are doing, there isn't really any secret special "America has to be the tech leader" sauce, there wasn't when the British where the world leaders or when the Italians where or the Middle East and back through history.

Exceptionalism eventually kills your lead.