On the other hand a lot of the growth in EV sales is coming from Chinese manufacturers so it will probably slow it down a bit - but less than I would have guessed.
Why would the second hand market cave first? You can buy second hand ICE cars very cheap. There are lots of second had ICE cars for under £2,000 (look at places like Autotrader). Will people be able to buy five year old EVs for that price? Assuming batteries law reasonably well, I expect EVs to keep their value better than ICE cars.
its very clear at the moment that the move to BEV is being lead by new cars. The second hand market will follow because sales of new cars determine what is available second hand a few years later.
Outside the United States, I expect 2-4 year used ICE vehicles to hit the $500 mark in the next few years. We'll likely see some bright entrepreneurs shipping barely used ICE vehicles to “countries with less infrastructure,” where gasoline is the primary energy source for transportation.
Sometimes a product is so bad that you can't make it cheap enough to make it worth buying.
Its higher for hybrids and even higher for BEV. EVs are a huge win for commuters in big cities, but that is not usual here. Only 25% of commuters in London do so in a car. I hate commuting anyway, and when I have had to do it by car (not in the UK) I hated it even more. More people go to work by car outside London but commuting mileage is still less than half other private mileage.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a9ed42af36e1...
if I had an EV it would be more expensive, and I would have to find a way of charging it (I park on the street). A second hand BEV would still need an annual MOT, and it would still need tyres, it could still suffer accidental damage. That covers almost all of my maintenance costs in the last three years.
> We'll likely see some bright entrepreneurs shipping barely used ICE vehicles to “countries with less infrastructure,” where gasoline is the primary energy source for transportation.
Infrastructure can change pretty quickly when you do not have much of it to start with. I think the primary reason for sticking to ICE in some countries will unreliable electricity supplies - but those are also the countries where oil supplies are chancy. It could change pretty fast too. I know people with home solar in tropical countries where it is pretty reliable.
So i actually think it could go the other way with developed countries slower to switch. I am far to uncertain to take any bets though.
It also assumes a linear trend continues. I think that is probably true if nothing changes, but there is a lot that could change that. The most likely change be joining the EU's "made in Europe" car policy which would mean far higher tariffs on Chinese EV imports.