There maybe a flipping point but I do not see you reasoning.

Why would the second hand market cave first? You can buy second hand ICE cars very cheap. There are lots of second had ICE cars for under £2,000 (look at places like Autotrader). Will people be able to buy five year old EVs for that price? Assuming batteries law reasonably well, I expect EVs to keep their value better than ICE cars.

its very clear at the moment that the move to BEV is being lead by new cars. The second hand market will follow because sales of new cars determine what is available second hand a few years later.

You're right. The secondhand market for ICE cars will continue to be cheaper than EVs because we're already seeing the impact of the cost of repairs, the daily expense, and social pressure driving down the value of ICE cars.

Outside the United States, I expect 2-4 year used ICE vehicles to hit the $500 mark in the next few years. We'll likely see some bright entrepreneurs shipping barely used ICE vehicles to “countries with less infrastructure,” where gasoline is the primary energy source for transportation.

Sometimes a product is so bad that you can't make it cheap enough to make it worth buying.

I am doubtful. Lots of older ICE cars are pretty reliable. Lots of people here in the UK either do motorway driving (less wear and tear and more efficient fuel consumption) or do very low mileage. Average annual mileage is about 6,000 miles for petrol cars.

Its higher for hybrids and even higher for BEV. EVs are a huge win for commuters in big cities, but that is not usual here. Only 25% of commuters in London do so in a car. I hate commuting anyway, and when I have had to do it by car (not in the UK) I hated it even more. More people go to work by car outside London but commuting mileage is still less than half other private mileage.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a9ed42af36e1...

if I had an EV it would be more expensive, and I would have to find a way of charging it (I park on the street). A second hand BEV would still need an annual MOT, and it would still need tyres, it could still suffer accidental damage. That covers almost all of my maintenance costs in the last three years.

> We'll likely see some bright entrepreneurs shipping barely used ICE vehicles to “countries with less infrastructure,” where gasoline is the primary energy source for transportation.

Infrastructure can change pretty quickly when you do not have much of it to start with. I think the primary reason for sticking to ICE in some countries will unreliable electricity supplies - but those are also the countries where oil supplies are chancy. It could change pretty fast too. I know people with home solar in tropical countries where it is pretty reliable.

So i actually think it could go the other way with developed countries slower to switch. I am far to uncertain to take any bets though.

there is a growing market for importing whole ship loads of used EV's from China, so depending on import rules markets could shift quite suddenly. The total world production of EV's is growing, and in many places having the newest is important, and low mileage cars will be availible in large numbers. It's one thing to have policy that protects local manufacturing, and another to protect the continued sale of outmoded , outdated technologys and the profits taken from the sale of fuel.Not to mention the forever oil wars.