The truth is we don't know. Anyone who can answer that question will be rich.

But actually, what I've commonly heard from immigrants from developing countries is not having their certifications recognised. What was once a surgeon/lawyer/accountant is now forced to do menial labour. So maybe that's one problem to consider solving.

    > not having their certifications recognised.

The same happens when bakers move from one rich EU country to another. (The Financial Times has written a few articles about it.) I'm not here to dump on the EU, but cross-border recognition of credentials is an insanely complex topic.

The past does not repeat.

But if you are going against 200 years (some say even 10,000 years) civilization trends, you better have extremely strong data points to prove this time is different

Simple: humans are needed for their physical labor (traditionally) or more recently their cognition. We are now automating the cognition part, and it is widely believed physical labor will be automated not that far after that. So what's left ? Most A.I labs mention some form of UBI why do you think they're saying that?

It is interesting that you chose "laying tile" as similar to the other jobs. I reject that idea. Some of the earliest specialization of labour is anything in the trades, and can probably be traced back to central European guilds from more 500 years ago.

> Take Muhammad, a fresh arrival from Syria, who drives a taxi. What will his next job be that is that easy and he already knows how to do?

Remotely operating a taxi (or some other semi-autonomous robot) from Syria?