Did I also miss the part where “likely” was shown to be grounded in anything other than a prejudice about people who have “risky” sex?

I dunno man if you want to answer claims about probability with single a data point that's up to you, but nobody can take that seriously, whatever the topic.

“Is someone irresponsible enough to drive a car (the second leading cause of accidental death) also likely to be responsible enough to comply with seatbelt laws?”

The word likely doesn’t make this argument any less dumb