> The company that expands is the company that "wins" because memory is a volume game and it's all about hanging on the longest during the glut. So once one company expands, the rest have a choice of expanding or planning their exit.

No? Cost to produce won't be cheaper just because you have 5 fabs instead of 4. Economies of scale at some level just flatten out so company that chooses to not expand will just enjoy the same level of profit instead of increase