You can’t do an unweighted analysis like so. Even if he did get a single thing right, you need to weigh it by the impact.

He's said many things that didn't come to be but since he controls over a trillion dollars in assets, anything he says will be impactful, perhaps even more so if it is something incorrect.

You might as well ask if L. Ron Hubbard, Rev. Sun Myung Moon, or Bhaghwan Shree Rajneesh is credible.

And? Self driving works. I've taken a bunch of cars in Miami and UAE where somebody was at the wheel for legal reasons only.

If Musk believed that, he would get the legal reasons resolved and profit.