The tools can definitely go away. They could get exponentially more expensive to where it is no longer financially possible to keep it subsidized. The bubble could pop and most of the companies could go bankrupt. It's not exactly like a calculator because it requires such an astronomical amount of resources to keep running.

I agree with you but there is a calculator analogy where the resources are local and while taxing for most, viable for the individual. Local AI is less capable than an army frontier model agents but still quite useful.

I think the most obvious impact (good AND bad) will be from people who didn't have (or want) skills to begin with being empowered to have a model crank out custom software to do little things to make their lives better. Can't atrophy a muscle that doesn't exist!