If you're 10/10 smart, you're getting a 7 figure sign on bonus to go work at Meta as an AI researcher.
If you're 6-9/10 smart, you're probably miserable somewhere.
If you're 4-5/10 smart, you are one of these people.
This is largely my experience as well. The Bay Area wannabe startup crowd is brimming with idiots, people dumber than your dumbest colleague at work. Unbelievable amounts of Dunning-Kruger.
The actual grind filters out most of them, of course, but if you concede that some businesses are basically luck then some number of those idiots will make it.
People who don't have those types of things in mind can only be so smart in my book.
Having access to capital is much more important than smarts, which is why so many people starting businesses have generational money propping them up, or as a safety net. Even smart people are usually reliant on that family capital. Bill Gates’ parents were millionaires, Musk and his dad’s emerald mine, Thiel started his first hedge fund with a million dollars raised from “friends and family”.
They are too dumb to not be confident. Plenty of confident dumb people are poor and try get rich quick schemes. Occasionally some of them work, and now you have a dumb business owner.