Akin to an average cellphone bill. The infrastructure costs are comparable and the ROI would be 5-10 years for the current insane build out.
Yes, chinese and local models exist. But so do $20 cell phone plans. People go with what is convenient, works, and is readily available.
Where? You get unlimited mobile plans for like 10-20 euros in Europe
I mean surely to make this claim, you aren't just making it up, surely you've done the research. In that case, what's so hard about sharing facts which you already know? I'm not asking you to put in a bunch of effort pulling financial statements and analyzing everything, I assume you've already done that because I doubt you'd make the claim otherwise.
My "priors" are that I raised a search fund and analyze companies every day.
The subsidies went away gradually and the prices leveled out in a spot where the services are heavily used. Uber became profitable. Ride sharing is affordable.
I think our $20/month plans might become a little less generous and the $200/month plan won’t always allow non-stop vibe coding, but I don’t think the prices are going to rise so much that users are priced out. Like Uber, customers will grumble for a while and then adapt to the new normal.
The big difference is that compute hardware is getting better. I think we might overshoot with data center buildouts to the point that compute becomes cheap, while hardware improvements continue to lower the cost of serving models. Over time the same service becomes cheaper to operate, opposite of Uber where driver wages are creeping upward.