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Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by khimaros on Monday April 13, 2026 @10:06PM (#47760412)
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by eru on Monday April 13, 2026 @11:00PM (#47760729)
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by viccis on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:10AM (#47761475)
>The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to get stuck in a years-long stalemate with Russia.

>These are obviously false.

The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons. "Years-long stalemate with Russia? Yes, please." -the US. Seems like an overwhelmingly common Scott Alexander L.

Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by verzali on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @02:39AM (#47762052)
Scott Alexander often seems surprisingly unaware of his priors, especially when speaking about things beyond the American shores.
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by eru on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:14AM (#47761508)
> The purpose of the Ukrainian military is to exhaust the Russian army's materiel and test out our weapons.

Since when does country A decide what the purpose of country B's military is?

Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by viccis on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:15AM (#47761513)
Since country A pays for country B's military.
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by verzali on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @02:40AM (#47762054)
So the EU is deciding?
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by eru on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:33AM (#47761630)
It's not even applicable here.
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by viccis on Sunday April 19, 2026 @03:49PM (#47827095)
I wish my tax dollars weren't being used to murder Russians on the other side of the globe, but sadly they are.
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by TeMPOraL on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @04:21AM (#47762811)
In practice, always. It's similar to the claim that during the cold war, US basically controlled USSR economy, and vice versa, and that US won because USSR economy just couldn't keep up.

On smaller scale, this is the (in)famous "fire and motion"[0], which works in business as much as it does in military tactics. Make a move, forcing competitors to respond to it. If you're better at it than them (and lucky), you can choose your moves to make their responses go to your advantage.

--

[0] - https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2002/01/06/fire-and-motion/

Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by vasco on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:40AM (#47761674)
Is the purpose of replying to Wikipedia with random substack drivel to get downvoted? Or is it a byproduct of the system?
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by eru on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @01:55AM (#47761766)
Well, that's not what the system does. So it can't be its purpose, I guess.

In any case, the blog is well regarded in these circles.

Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by actionfromafar on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @03:48AM (#47762573)
I was shocked at how shallow that take is. I expected more.
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by Orygin on Tuesday April 14, 2026 @07:33AM (#47764225)
Why does the page have a non-removable blue filter? Feels like a popup shadow that doesn't go away...
Re:Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No ... by khimaros on Monday April 20, 2026 @07:23PM (#47842439)
thank you for sharing. i typically like his writing but didn't find this one terribly insightful.

however, from his follow-up post https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comment...:

> When people insist on the confusing and inappropriately-strong version, I start to suspect that the confusingness is a feature, letting them smuggle in connotations that people would otherwise correctly challenge.

i find this comical because it reads like a slightly-differently-worded POSIWID argument :)