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A comment on Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story. Parent comment

Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by thayne on Monday March 16, 2026 @12:59PM (#47401604)
> It is the most Degenerate form of gambling out there.

I don't think so. At least you have a 50% chance of winning. Unlike say a lottery or a slot machine.

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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by eloisant on Monday March 16, 2026 @02:07PM (#47402553)
It's not the chance of winning that matters, it's the mean expected value.

If you have a 50% chance of losing $2 or gaining $1, you have a negative expected value and that's bad.

If you have a 10% chance of gaining 100$ and 90% chance of losing $1, that's an expected value of $9 and it's a great deal.

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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by thayne on Monday March 16, 2026 @04:15PM (#47404284)
Yes that is bad, but it isn't as bad as the expected value of a Powerball lottery ticket.
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Re:Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile... by HWR_14 on Monday March 16, 2026 @01:59PM (#47402436)
50% chance of winning, but there is a rake from the site.
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