The best part of all of this is given their history, and the state of robotaxies as a whole, they will fail, and Tesla will crash. And it'll be a great day. The hype and obscene over valuation of them is utterly moronic.

Look how much longer, and more experience Waymo has and they still have multiple issues a week popping up online, and thats with running them in a very small well mapped and planned out area. Musk wants robo taxies globally, that's just not happening, not any time soon and certainly not by the 10 year limit for him to get his trillion dollar bonus from Tesla, which is the only reason he's pushing so hard to make it happen.

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company.

I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality.

I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire.

It’d be best for everyone outside of the company but he and the board would be buried in lawsuits for the rest of their lives. They have a strong personal interest in avoiding that even if it’s well-deserved based on sober data analysis, so they’re pushing the Hail Mary play trying to jump into a bigger new market which they haven’t already ceded to the competition.

We need to bring back the concept of seppuku for situations like that. "We have to lie more because it would be too painful to admit our lies" should be a moment that makes any leader question where they have been, where they are, where they're going, and all of their motivations and reasoning. It should be the sort of "what have I done?" moment that sends a person to a monastery, an asylum, or the grave.

They also reported tiny profits that are just slightly above what they get in as subsidies. P/E compared to other similar companies is also through the roof.

I saw a pretty convincing argument that Musk fried his brain with ketamine, written by a former ketamine abuser who saw a lot of familiar behavior. I don't think Musk is the same guy now that he was in the early days.

Sounds like a reach. Many people just loved the stuff he was doing and didn't really know much about him as a person. When a more complete picture (specifically his politics) emerged, and people decided they really didn't like the person, they had to resolve their cognitive dissonance by finding reasons they were right then and right now, instead of admitting they projected the person they imagined onto the person they really didn't know. Tech enthusiasts just never imagined that a guy doing so many cool things could turn out to be a right-winger.

Well one major change to his politics was his view on climate change. He also supported Obama in both elections, and had the self-control to keep pretty quiet about issues unrelated to his business.

I found the article I was talking about: https://alisoncrosthwait.substack.com/p/a-ketamine-addicts-p...

It says it's quite easy for ketamine use to get out of control without the users noticing, that they're are able to work effectively despite that, and that they tend to develop radically different and delusional beliefs. Given that Elon has admitted to self-administering ketamine, I don't think the idea should be dismissed.

I have seen it a few times. It really twists some people up.

I really hope I live to see Tesla stock crash to a reasonable valuation.

I dislike Tesla/Elon but would prefer the reality where they innovate until their worth matches their current price. I suspect yours is more likely to happen.

That is actually impossible.

And then, they will pivot away from humanoid robots. To justifying the valuation they have already pivoted from electric cars company to self-driving taxis company, without delivering self-driving taxis, they are now pivoting to robots, before delivering the robots they will pivot to the next shinny thing. Maybe Pivot is the real Tesla product that justifies the crazy valuation.

Before people believe the Tesla robot hype they should probably consider that Toyota has been making cars AND robots for longer than Tesla exists.

And they started making electric cars in the mid-90s. They almost sold 400 of them, so that experience has definitely paid off.

That is why all the crazy promises and moves, hyping X.ai, Robotaxis, Optimus, Data centers in space. If you are constantly promising the future and some radical moves, the optimistic investors believe him and he can keep increasing the "potential future valuation".

But when you look at it:

- X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industry.

- Do a buyout of your own company with it, get access to data that you restricted to everyone else.

- Merge it with SpaceX for "datacenters in space", do an IPO for a huge valuation

- Probably merge it with Tesla, overhype everything

- As the humanoid, AI and space industry grows, so will the valuation just because of the market growth, not necessarily because of great/revolutionary products

At that point, nobody can even consider what the valuation is, as it is a mishmash of promises, fudged numbers, real numbers, potential numbers, contracts, hype and everything else. It allows moving financials around and tuning things to get him his 1T package and hype things even more.

I mean congrats to Elon, just by overhyping his products he shifts the timeline narrative more towards techno-optimism and earns himself more money. The financial shenanigans to follow in the next few years will be an interesting period for future financial archeologists.

> - X.ai is basically getting into the race by throwing money at the problem and using your name to get funding in a hyped industry.

Well, everyone is doing that. That's what AI research is.