Don't be like that. They're just looking at how the numbers change with/without this semi-outlier chunk of the curve.

They were referencing the last paragraph of the OP, about being able to safely sunset a large portion of beef production.

Looking at a theoretical shift in production is not "wanting to stand in loco parentis".

It would be safe. That's a different question from how we make decisions, or who makes those decisions.

Precisely. I'm saying if we let the production capacity evaporate, which appears to be the trajectory we're on, there will be no harm. Will people be sad or have strong feelings about a luxury good being unaffordable? Potentially, and that's unfortunate.

I'm simply observing the trajectories we're on due to climate change, input costs, and the aging out of beef cattle ranchers (in this context, projected beef supply, cost, and downstream consumption patterns from those inputs). We simply have to do nothing as the economics shrinks beef herds over time, pushing prices up. Think consumption death spiral as the the affordability of beef dwindles.

Beef ranchers are uncertain of the future, so they are sending more heads to slaughter, capitalizing on very favorable prices, versus expanding their herds for the future. What does this do to future herd sizes and therefore supply and cost to the consumer? Add the gestational period of cattle to that mental model. When these processing plants close, how long will it take to build new ones or start mothballed ones back up if herd sizes increase years from now? Will you be able to find communities who will accept these plants again? Where will you find the workers?

More US Beef Plants May Close as Cattle Herds Keep Shrinking - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-19/more-us-b... | https://archive.today/vccTl - December 19th, 2025

What happens to a small Nebraska town when 3,200 workers lose their jobs - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46362052 - December 2025 ("Tyson says it’s closing the plant [Lexington, Nebraska] to “right-size” its beef business after a historically low cattle herd in the U.S. and the company’s expected loss of $600 million on beef production next fiscal year."

Beef prices have soared in the US — and not just during grilling season - https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-record-high-cattle-st... - July 21st, 2025

Droughts, complicated by climate change, result in US beef herd hitting historic low - https://investigatemidwest.org/2024/03/13/droughts-complicat... - March 13th, 2024

U.S. Cattle Inventory Smallest in 73 years - https://www.fb.org/market-intel/u-s-cattle-inventory-smalles... - February 5th, 2024

(think in systems)

Since this is a market economy, I assume equilibrium will eventually be reached. Lower supply raises prices, new entrants see an opportunity to make money raising cattle, prices start to come down.

Supply won’t increase for at least half a decade, as my comments communicate.