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Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by phonicwheel on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @02:52AM (#46442264)
How is trading the actual BTC not also gambling on the price of BTC going up or down?
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by onion2k on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @03:17AM (#46442363)
It's not really, but the difference is that I'm limited by the supply of BTC, and it requires that I actually have the money to make the 'bet' at the start. That restricts the size of the spot market.

If I'm buying futures I can enter into a contract that says "I'll buy a contract for 1BTC that says BTC is going to go from $88.5k to $98.5k in 1 year." I don't actually hand over any money. In a year's time, if BTC is now $100k the person who agreed on the contract gives me $10k. If it doesn't go up then I owe the seller $10k. The futures contract is settled in cash - no BTC is involved.

Right now though, I don't have a $88.5k to spend on BTC, so the spot market isn't an option. I probably could find $10k in a year's time so a bet on a BTC future might be viable. The actual derivative 'value' isn't real though. The only money changing hands is the delta of the change in value when the contract is settled.

(Caveat: I am a total noob at finance stuff so this could be quite wrong. One of the many reasons I will not be buying that futures contract. :) )

Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by johnnienaked on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @04:02AM (#46442562)
It's very wrong. Futures contracts on traditional exchanges have no counterparty risk and require the deposit of a significant amount of upfront capital as collateral. If the spot price of the underlying moves in either direction, debits or credits are made to and from each margin account and if you don't have the money to cover a margin call, the contract gets closed.
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by tommek4077 on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @06:24AM (#46443258)
Future markets give traders leverage of 100x sometimes or more. Margin requirements are much lower than trading spot.
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by johnnienaked on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @02:30PM (#46447440)
Margin requirements for trading spot are zero, though initial capital requirements are obviously, well, whatever spot is.

Futures contracts aren't just pieces of paper traded between people, they are actual promises to pay for physical delivery of the underlying.

It's not surprising to me that crypto people consider them nothing more than leveraged gambling slips but that's really not how one should think about them. Personally I think crypto needs far heavier regulation than it gets.

Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by tommek4077 on Thursday January 01, 2026 @06:37AM (#46453309)
Ever heard of liquidations?
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by SiempreViernes on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @03:10AM (#46442325)
You might buy BTC to actually spend it, say on paying a ransomware vendor.
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by tatersolid on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @08:12AM (#46443800)
We’re calling these organized criminals vendors now?
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by _heimdall on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @07:20AM (#46443526)
Its hard for me to consider owning the underlying asset as gambling compared to owning paper bets on the future value. In the former you are owning it today, in the later you are betting only on what it will cost to own later.
Re:Sabotaging Bitcoin by gosub100 on Wednesday December 31, 2025 @08:20AM (#46443857)
Derivatives can be structured in a time-constrained manner that requires them to go up/down in a specific time window, thus amplifying the gains/losses. Also there's generally no way to short an asset without borrowing them with a contract to pay them back (which requires timing the market move and paying rent on the asset). This is something that options contracts solved.