OpenAI isn't a publicly-traded company though, how will it going to zero affect the stock market?

OpenAI collapses and MSFT tanks. Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.

And that's ignoring the dominoes of other AI firms being pulled out of because OpenAi falters.

> Microsoft shareholders aren't quite that dumb.

If they aren't dumb, why are they investing in MSFT now then if it's a bubble that's doomed to fail? And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression. (Keep in mind that we already had a ~20% drawdown in public equities during the interest rate hikes of 2022/2023 and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.)

Like I said, they aren't "that" dumb. They are playing a risky game, but when they see the number go down rapidly they will pull. Which will make the line go down even faster.

>And even in the worst case scenario, a 10-15% decline in the S&P 500 won't trigger the next Great Depression

Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.

> and the economy remained pretty robust throughout.

Yeah and we voted the person who orchestrated that out. We don't have the money to pump trillions back in a 2nd time in such a short time. Something's gonna give, and soon.

> Only if you believe the 10% decline won't domino and that the S&P500 is secluded from the rest of the global economy. I wish I shared your optimism.

So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment? I agree that it could cause a slight economic slowdown, but I don't think AI and tech stocks are a large enough part of the economy to cause a Great Depression-style catastrophe.

>So your hypothesis is that a 10% decline in the S&P 500 will trigger the next Great Depression, i.e. years of negative GDP growth and unemployment?

Yup. I won't say it's the only factor, nor biggest. But I'm focusing on this topic and not 40+ years of government economic abandonment of the working class. It's the straw that will break the camel's back.

The problem is that the non AI economy is already in the toilet. The consumer and commodities markets are all flashing red. Consumer debt is all time high. Inflation is still punishing the bottom end of workers severely and the ACA cuts will cause a lot of financial stress (unless people of course discountinue their plans)

An expected outcome from a AI blowout is the uncertainty and everyone holding onto their assets and credit recalls plus interest rate hikes.

During the great depression it wasn't the stock market collapse that caused it as much as it was the credit crunch that followed. Prior to the blowout people literally bought stocks on credit.

Its about "animal spirits"

The stock market isn't rational, its a room full of people talking loudly, and moving to various tables.

All it takes is someone outside the room to shout something that triggers panic, and most of the people in the room will run for the exit.

Multiple publicly traded companies, including Microsoft, have invested significant amounts of money in OpenAI.

The closest analogy is the dot-com crash and there really wasn't any bailout for that, despite the short term GDP impact. And billion-dollar companies were involved back in the day too, like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Ebay etc. etc.