But this is literally what senior engineers do most of the time? Have juniors write code with direction and review that it isn't buggy?
Given the nature of the statistics in question, the line between the two is extremely blurry at this point.
I mentor high-school students and watch them live write code that takes a completely bizarre path. It might technically be intentional, but that doesn’t mean it’s good or useful.
Some people really are going to hang on until the better end (and beyond) eh?
"AI can't code like me!" people are going to get crushed.
And not at all for you, because you're unlikely to retain them for long. Which makes this immaterial - AI or human, you're only going to delegate to n00bs.
(This is distinct from the question of which benefits society more, which is a separate discussion.)
And then quit after accepting a new job that pays them their modified value, because tech companies are particularly bad at proactive retention.
My hunches are that the to-and-fro of ideas as you discuss options or make corrections leads to a context with competing “intentions”; and that they can’t tell the difference between positive and negative experiences when it comes across each successive token in the context.
But I don’t make LMMs, so this is pure guesswork.
The rabbit hole problem is pretty rare. Usually it happens when the model flips into "stupid mode", some kind of context poisoning. If you are experienced, you know to purge the context when that happens.
In personal projects I avoid manual editing as a form of deliberate practice. At work, I only edit when it is a very small edit. I can usually explain what I want more concisely and quickly than hand editing code.
I probably would use more hand editing if I had classic refactoring tools in the IDEs similar to intellij/pycharm. Though cli based tools were a pleasant surprise once I actively started using them.
What does this look like in practice?
And then I waste 20 minutes bashing my head against the wall trying to write three paragraphs meticulously documenting all the key gotchas and lessons from the "good" context window with the magic combination of words needed to get Claude back in the right head space to one-shot again.
At least if I pull that off I can usually ask Claude to use it as documentation for the project CLAUDE.md with a pretty good success rate. But man it leaves a bad taste in my mouth and makes me question whether I'm actually saving time or well into sunk cost territory...
But in all seriousness, completion is not the only metric of productivity. I could easily break it down into a mountain of subtasks that have been fully completed for the bean counters. In the meantime, the code that did not exist 2 months ago does exist.
that's the issue in the argument though. it could be that those projects would also have been completed in the same time if you had simply started working on them. but honestly, if it makes you feel productive to the point you're doing more work than you would do without the drug, I'd say keep taking it. watch out for side effects and habituation though.
There are any number of things you could add to get you to any conclusion. Better to discuss what is there.
I've had the same experience of being able to finish tons of old abandoned projects with AI assistance, and I am not spending any more time than usual working on programming or design projects. It's just that the most boring things that would have taken weeks to figure out and do (instead, let me switch to the other project I have that is not like that, yet) have been reduced to hours. The parts that were tough in a creative fun way are still tough, and AI barely helps with them because it is extremely stupid, but those are the funnest, most substantive parts.
The magic of Claude is that you can simply start.
I don't need a study to tell me that five projects that have been stuck in slow plodding along waiting for me to ever have time or resources for nearly ten years. But these are now nearing completion after only two months of picking up Claude Code. And with high-quality implementations that were feverdreams.
My background is academic science not professional programming though and the output quality and speed of Claude Code is vastly better than what grad students generate. But you don't trust grad student code either. The major difference here is that suggestions for improvement loop in minutes rather than weeks or months. Claude will get the science wrong, but so do grad students.
(But sure technically they are not finished yet ... but yeah)