You need to multiple it by the probability of that new service actually succeeding, which is low.

And even then, do you expect it to move stock price by more than 10%? Otherwise it's not going to meaningfully impact your RSU compensation

You are correct with regards to amazon. In earlier stage companies, your rsu can 3x overnight once you ship

In early stage companies - ie private companies - your RSUs are Monopoly money ther will statistically be worthless. In a public company, my RSUs are immediately available to liquidate (which I did).

I don't need to do that. I contest the claim "doubling my production could only be equivalent" by giving a possible example where it isn't equivalent. That doesn't depend on how likely the example is, only that one (and many) of them could exist.

You could just work smarter instead of more and have a much larger effect on stock price.