People were definitely saying bubble earlier this year, but I think the market could excuse the selloff by attributing it to DeepSeek and "Liberation Day"; the AI hype machine was still in overdrive. For some reason the market has decided not to care about tariffs anymore, but GPT-5 being mid has really put the kabosh on the whole AGI schtick.

> but GPT-5 being mid has really put the kabosh on the whole AGI schtick.

I don't think any significant conclusion, for the future of AI/possibility of AGI, should be made by looking at a single model/company.

I'm not even making predictions on whether AGI is possible or not, but the valuations of these companies hinges on AI being able to replace a large portion of human labor. I think we are teetering on the edge of a huge bubble pop unless some other company releases something that's not just another chatbot that does slightly better on some benchmarks that nobody outside of the industry has ever heard of.

What I'm trying to say is that the stock market mostly runs on vibes at this point. And when you have the CEO of the leading model company hyping up a release people have been anticipating for 2 years by tweeting out images of the death star, saying that it made him feel useless, etc. etc., and then it turns out to be a cost-cutting exercise and causes a massive uproar amongst its most loyal users, I think the market is going to adjust to reflect the bad vibes.

> GPT-5 being mid has really put the kabosh on the whole AGI schtick.

I think it’s interesting to watch this play out. I believe many people knew that gpt5 was chronically delayed as long as it could be, because the measuring stick of 2->3->4 was going to show a significant smaller step, which would inevitably destroy their market value.

It would be interesting if that does end up becoming the thing that pops the bubble. There is not longer any reason for the average person to take seriously the hype from OpenAI. They can now see for themselves that the long awaited release of GPT5 is an emperor without clothes.

Among institutional equity investors there has been very little discussion of GPT-5 being a disappointment or about diminishing returns in LLM scaling. Over the last few weeks pod shops have been pushing the narrative that vibe-coding AI startups are going to crush established enterprise SaaS companies.

I said bubble since gpt4 was hyped like the invention of bread, but I guess I'm not important enough

Bread was ok. We need the slicer!

isn't there usually a dip feb-april? I thought it was people paying taxes.

... Was anything _else_ happening during that sell-off? Was just business as usual, right?

That was a general market shakeup, this seems potentially much more focused.