> We think obesity is basically going to be gone in <7 years.

I wonder if this is for wealthy people

(...who might be the target market - being overweight might be a disease of affluence)

Nope! It won't be, because capitalism.

In 2026, patent protections that lapse are going to cause a tidal wave:

https://glp1.guide/content/novo-nordisk-patent-protections-l...

For context, the previous calculus was:

https://glp1.guide/content/patent-expirations-for-glp1-recep...

(~2033 for the US)

Theoretically, the tidal wave of generic Semaglutide wouldn't hit the US or EU due to patent protections there... But see the aforementioned note about capitalism.

Note that there is already generic Liraglutide as well:

https://glp1.guide/content/another-generic-liraglutide-launc...

Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) > Semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy/Rybelsus) > Liraglutide

But having any of these available is a step change.

> (...who might be the target market - being overweight might be a disease of affluence)

This might be true on the margin but is mostly untrue these days. The lack of access to healthy unprocessed food and the free time to exercise are becoming increasingly problems for those who are NOT wealthy.

I think that, just like with stomach reduction surgery, people are going to find a way to overeat and gain weight while taking Ozempic too.

Nope, because the change is actually in the brain.

https://glp1.guide/content/research-on-glp1-signaling-in-the...

https://glp1.guide/content/research-suggesting-glp1-is-a-bra...

https://glp1.guide/content/are-glp1s-primarily-brain-drugs/

This is the killer feature of Semaglutide and GLP1 Receptor Agonists widely. They were originally commonly thought about as digestion-slowing, and while that is part of it, the real change is that it's a brain drug.

Oh also, on whether people gain back the weight:

https://glp1.guide/content/do-people-regain-all-the-weight-l...

tl;dr - most people (i.e. over 50%) do not.

Is glp1guide a neutral source? Honest question

Uh, so, first, I'll say that bariatric surgery is largely a successful (if extremely invasive) intervention. It is not the case that people who do that surgery somehow compensate eat back to the same level -- on average, they don't. And second, the GLP-1s just massively reduce the urge to snack/eat. I'm sure they are less effective for some people than others, but on the whole they are miraculously effective for the population that overate habitually (the obese).

Ozempic alters the rewards system, so if it's working you don't want to overeat, not just that you physically can't.

> and the side effects can be severe

Are there severe side effects that aren't extremely rare? can you provide data on this?