Re:Guess I'm a Rationalist Now
by chandlerswift on Friday June 20, 2025 @12:08AM
(#44324657)
Am I reading all of these backwards? You say
> He predicted at least $250 million in damages from Black Lives Matter protests.
He says
> 5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
which, by my reading means he assigns it greater-than-even odds that _less_ than $250 million dollars in damages happened (I have no understanding of whether or not this result is the case, but my reading of your post suggests that you believe that this was indeed the outcome).
You say
> He gave a 70% chance to Vitamin D being generally recognized as a good COVID treatment
while he says
> Vitamin D is _not_ generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: 70%
(emphasis mine)
> He predicted at least $250 million in damages from Black Lives Matter protests.
He says
> 5. At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year: 30%
which, by my reading means he assigns it greater-than-even odds that _less_ than $250 million dollars in damages happened (I have no understanding of whether or not this result is the case, but my reading of your post suggests that you believe that this was indeed the outcome).
You say > He gave a 70% chance to Vitamin D being generally recognized as a good COVID treatment
while he says > Vitamin D is _not_ generally recognized (eg NICE, UpToDate) as effective COVID treatment: 70% (emphasis mine)