The greatest home run hitters of all time average < 30% hit rate (not 30% of hits are home runs, but 30% of swings are even hits).

Sometimes you gotta swing for that fence regardless of the outcome.

That analogy breaks down almost immediately. I get your point that when you go out and try to do things sometimes you will fail, but the problem is that many of his design failures were seen _even at the time_ to be failures.

I don't necessarily think Ive is going to succeed, but if you're going to make a lot of bets, taking one bet on someone who succeeded before seems pretty reasonable. He wouldn't be the first person to rise to great heights, fall, and rise again, even in the Apple world.

I absolutely agree right up until we start talking about price. Obviously this deal was all in stock from someone who has a history creative corporate control structures, but nevertheless the on paper cost of was $6.4 billion. That's a hell of a bet.

This whole thread seems weird to me. There's no way on Earth this is to acquire talent, let alone one person alone.

For this price, I'd figure something already exists.

Sam did say he took one of the prototypes home and he thought it was "the coolest piece of technology the world will have ever seen"

since we're torturing the analogy... you don't measure a baseball team's success by the # of HR's one player records in a season, you talk championships over time. Sometimes they're related, but less frequently than you'd think.

But even those best home run hitters reach a point where the hit rate drops way below average...

A good batter knows when the pitch is bad and you take the balls and get a walk.

I hate sports analogies, because they're arbitrary

A good QB will complete 65% of his passes

A good goaltender will stop 90% of shots

A good bowler will get a strike 95% of the time

This gave me an idea: a Slack AI that will give me an analogy to support my point, whatever it may be.

“Hey Analogai, help me out here.”

“Ah I see what Chip Frumpkins, Director of Looking Relevant is saying. It’s basically that we need to throw a lot of paint at the wall to see what sticks. And if we fail, at least we’ve got a Jackson Pollock.”

Baseball is the hardest sport, but it’s a zero sum game. The .300 batting average is against equally elite pitching. Engineering or design is about adding value.

Taking the raw engineering of the components and interfaces that defined the iPhone and making a system of it is design at its peak and almost art.

Taking a proven form factor like a laptop, not talking to users and making it worse is just a misstep. It wasn’t a complete disaster only because the bar is so low, the defective Apple laptop is still the best laptop in the market.

As one of the fervent 500 million daily GPT users it’s a no brainer for Open AI to create a personal mobile AI device or an AI phone with GPT accessible right from your Lock Screen.

It could…

- interface with AI Agents( businesses, friends & family’s agents, etc) to get things done & used as a knowledgeable.

Once u pick up the device it’s like a FaceTime call with your AI agent/friend in which u can skin to look however u want (a deceased loved one ..tho that might be too out there).

- It visually surfs the Web with you.. making u not open a web browser as much

- take the best selfies of u…gets you to the best lighting.

Overall excited to see their vision and leave/drop Apple’s now boring iPhone for a GPT phone or personal mobile AI device. I think a phone form factor would be best, but we’ll see.

How did that work for the Facebook phone? And all their billions of fervent Facebook users?

Google own this space - pixel phones already do pretty much all of this, and they have the best models and the most users too. No built in agentic capabilities yet, but I am sure that is just a month or two away (see project mariner).

If you've not tried the pixel photo ai features already, you may be surprised. Things like changing lighting, removing people from the shot, auto-stitching people into a group photo, composites group photos so you get one photo where everyone is smiling and looking at the camera at the same time even if that never happened etc, text-editing photos etc. Gemini live is like a facetime call without the 3d avatar but we've seen they can do it with Veo3 already if they wanted.

This is all reality today already in the hands of billions of Google users, so OpenAI have a bit of a hill to climb: OpenAI would need to not only catch up with Google (both in AI space which they seem incapable of doing right now but also in product too) and surpass them.

Google are totally integrated in this space - the device, the software, the AI models, the infrastructure, the data, the sites/apps people use (search, Gmail, maps, YouTube, docs, ...) and also the billions of users.

I doubt OpenAI can really make a dent here. I suspect any OpenAI-Phone will be quietly discontinued like the Facebook phone

Maybe time will tell ..myself never to excited about a Facebook phone but I am a big Meta Ray Ban wearer/user.

Not sure smart glasses will be big but I lean on indeed they will be just not replace our pocket mobile devices (can’t take selfies with glasses).

Had Google not stopped producing and iterating on Google Glass, we would have HUDs in our eyeglass frames, that would be useful.

I'm shocked that nobody has reproduced Google Glass. It was great even back then and it didn't take much to understand its usefulness.

No company that I am aware of has produced anything like it since

They stopped the glasses with tiny fov that weren't useful, but they have all (FB, Apple, Google, multiple startups like North, Xreal) been working on more subtle glasses continuously since then, it's just been hard and have needed display/power breakthroughs. Google announced new glasses again yesterday. Looks promising but live demo sputtered out at the end, still not gonna be ready for a while

Meta Ray Bans for sunglasses wearer who takes pics & videos using their phone are very handy; no need to take out or even have your phone to do either. Can also ask it for the time without needing your phone too.

What I was describing is basically H.E.R. the movie on your GPT phone or personal mobile AI device (a hologram.. maybe they are going for). To me it's a new paradigm driven by AI as your friend/assistant unlike Facebook making a social network phone. As well to me GPT feels like how Twitter and Google felt when they started to slowly change the world in their own ways. Do you use GPT frequently throughout your day?

You pick up your GPT mobile device and the UX is a FaceTime call with a real life looking AI person who does everything for you(you can skin it to look like anyone including a deceased relative.. they live on & help you thru life). You rarely will need to go to the web ... your AI friend / agent / assistant could bring up the web right within the FaceTime call yet visual the data you seek. They can take the best selfies of you ... direct to the best lighting within your living space at the time. As noted your AI friend will interface with AI Agents of businesses, your friends & family to schedule things and used as a knowledge base (want to know your cousin birthday ask your agent and if you cousin shares that with family members your agent will tell you via their agent).

You are saying Google just announced a H.E.R. phone or personal AI mobile device where the AI is the focus (apps and the web take a backseat)? As Im describing above?

And you seriously think Ive could be responsible for leading this effort?

You & just a dude here with ideas that in time go nowhere or maybe somewhere. Altman noted different demographics use GPT differently with 18 to 20 somethings not making decisions without consulting GPT (could be marketing speak but with some truth).

how is this related to Ive being competent or not?

Obviously the plan is to bring back Jobs 2.0 AI Edition as a conversational agent and personal coach.

Apple certainly aren't going to do it, so who better than Ive?

The trash can was a bet on external GPU enclosures, which are technically feasible but just never took off in the marketplace. It was great engineering for a use case that just didn’t pan out.

Apple never really wanted to support eGPU. That's why the marketplace never took off.

Yes they did, they redesigned an entire very expensive product category around them.

He transformed the MacBook Pro into its pure essence, the ultimate form, meant to be used on a slab of polished granite in a HEPA filtered room, with only a precisely aligned array of dongles to offset the clean vision.

The fact the you took your laptop out in the field or to a couch in some barn like a filthy animal, corrupting perfection with dust and grease, rendering the keyboard useless is on you. It is a reflection of your own animal nature.

Every Macbook user I've seen seems to have an ultra smudged fingerprint screen as if they were using an iPad with so many layers of oil it shimmers as a rainbow, with sprinkles with various unique flakes of dandruff, and dirt encrusted on their trackpad and keyboard. It stirs up conniptions.

USB-C only ports were good though?

Spot on about the rest, though.

I still chuckle when I see a new laptop with USB-A ports

You know, when we upgraded to USB-C I thought they were mostly nifty. Reversible, quite universal, fully embraced by everyone.

But over 7 years of using them, I've come to resent some of their differences with past USB connectors. Very small, insecure friction grip, reversible, more delicate.

Also it seems that device designers think that a newer generation of USB needs fewer ports? My Lenovo ThinkPad had 2x USB-A and 2x USB-C in 2018. Now I've got a Pixel with 1x USB-C and a Chromebook with 1x USB-A and 2x USB-C; on each of those devices you need one port for charging. So if USB is more versatile and compatible than ever, why am I not allowed to plug in all my stuff at once?