As one example: 10 years ago we had winters with typical snowfall and summers that weren't constantly in the extremes. 10 years from now we'll have some other notable difference that is noticeable in everyday life, particularly given the disappearing groundwater around the globe (we can even set aside the guaranteed continued loss of biodiversity) and rising ocean temperatures.

We won't be in a post-apocalyptic hellscape in 10 years if that's your measuring stick for negative effects.

Ok so just to be clear we’ve downgraded from “you’ll have to apologize to your kids” to “Winters will be colder but not as cold as they were 210 years ago”.

Doesn't really feel like a good faith engagement with the larger point, much less the specific point. I'm inclined to debate, but what's the point? The reality and impacts of what's happening are documented and easily available to those privileged enough to not feel any personal experience from what's happening in and to the world if you're ever more curious than you are right now.

To think that the only visible impact will be in 210 years just show how uninformed you are.

From the scientific models we have, we're pretty much screwed. From the measurements we make and compare to the models, it appears like the models are optimistic.

What's sad is that people like you now say "it's not as bad as they say" and 20 years from now you'll be the first ones to say "we didn't know, why didn't they tell us?".

It's already impacting people today. The same logic that you employ to deny that it's happening today can be used 80 years from now to deny that it's happening then: the change is too gradual for people to notice (insert quip about boiling frogs here), and the coping strategies will develop alongside.

To be fair, in 80 years we'll probably be at 4C global warming, where half of the Earth (around the equator) will be unlivable.

I mean it's gradual up to a point, but when you can't survive anymore, it's not like you can ignore it.

> and the coping strategies will develop alongside.

Such as "drill baby, drill!" and tariffs :-).

I meant 10-15 years as in "when they are 16-20 years old and actually start to understand how fucked we are".

> Realistically if this is a problem it's my adult grandkids at most or great-grandkids who it would begin to impact.

It's already impacting us. We are measurably living in a mass extinction that is happening faster than the one of the dinosaurs.

The way it's going, GenZ (probably millenials) are more likely to die from this than from age. After having lived in global war times. Anyone in their thirties or less being anxious about their retirement are missing the bigger problem they will be facing at that age.