Thats the biggest part everyone misses. It’s all sunshine and rainbows until in a month you realize you start asking llm to think for you and at that point the code becomes shit and degrades fast.

Like with everything else “use it or lose it”

If you don’t code yourself- you will lose the ability to properly so it very fast, and you won’t realize it until too late

Which is approximately zero companies.

For example: thirty years ago, FX trading was executed by a bunch of human traders (some were physically standing at the trading floor). Then, computers arrived on the scene, which made all of them practically obsolete. Nowadays FX trading is executed by a collection of automated algorithms, being monitored by few quants.

My question is: is the software development in 2025 basically like what the foreign exchange was in the 2000s?

With industrialisation blacksmiths were replaced by assembly lines. I'm sure that blacksmiths are more flexible and capable in almost any important dimension, but the economics of factories just made more sense.

I expect that when the dust settles (assuming that the dust settles), that most software will be an industrial product. The humans involved in its creation will be engineers and not craftsmen. Today we have machinists and industrial engineers - not blacksmiths.

Quality and quality assurance processes will become more important, I also expect optimised production processes. I think a lot of the software ecosystem is a baroque set of over-engineered (or over crafted) steps and processes and this will probably be refactored.

I expect code quality metrics to be super refined. Craftsmen don't usually produce artifacts to the tolerances that our machines do now - code will be the same. I expect automated correctness proofs, specification languages, enhanced type systems to have a renaissance.