I think the Ukrainian hope is the war eventually becomes so unpopular in Russia that it endangers Putin’s rule. Then political instability strikes Moscow - Putin is removed in a coup or assassinated - and faced with the chaos in Moscow, Russian battlefield morale collapses, frontline troops are withdrawn to Moscow to fight over who is Putin’s successor, etc - suddenly Ukrainian troops massively advance

How plausible is that scenario? I don’t know. It isn’t impossible. More likely to happen in a few years time (assuming the war lasts that long). Probably not happening this year, but one never knows - who predicted Prigozhin‘s abortive coup in June 2023? Who knows if or when such an event might happen again - maybe next time more successfully?

Trump’s recent moves arguably reduce the odds of such a development by increasing Russian perceptions that the war is likely to be resolved on terms they’ll find favourable. However, Trump is fickle, and it isn’t impossible that with time he’ll move to a position the Russians will find less encouraging (it isn’t guaranteed, of course)

Prigozhin's "coup" was probably the closest thing to it. Unfortunately I do not share your optimism in here - Putin planted him self well and surrounded himself by loyal men.

Continuing to send men to die in a losing battle without an actual plan, hoping that the opponent's leadership falls, seems like an awful idea to me. It gives me similar vibes to "our scientists are on the verge of creating a wonder weapon" that is often propagated on losing sides, e.g Germany in WW2.

It's hard to see that as a huge victory at the cost of more than 900.00p casualties for something Russia has plenty of - land.

Also economic collapse (high inflation, high interest rates, and no industry).

Ukraine just needs to continue to chip away at them, the bigger they are, the bigger the fall, and Russians aren't paying the price for this blunder yet.

Not all land is created equally.

Russia doesn't really value the lives of men.

Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying?

> Been waiting for that economic collapse for 3 years. How many more Ukrainian men must die before we get it? How many more are you okay with dying?

What possibly leads you to believe that Ukraine capitulating will end Russia's push to kill Ukrainians? Russia is engaging in a massive ethnic cleansing campaign, as documented in cases such as Bucha. Do you honestly believe that will stop if Ukraine surrendered as Trump is demanding them to?

Try to think about it: why do you think Zelenski is so adamant in demanding security guarantees?

The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine. I do believe that there is a good chance Putin would be satisfied with the eastern oblasts. It would also be a lot more difficult holding western part of Ukraine as their population is much more anti-Russia. I don't know for certain, and it is speculation, but that's what I think.

I completely understand why Zelenskyy wants security guarantees. I would too in his place. I don't blame him for that at all - but I don't think it will happen and I would not want my country to provide any security guarantee for Ukraine. I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.

> The regions that Russia is after, has some vague historic link to Russia, had a high pro Russian population percentage or provided land connection to Crimea as well as water supply that was blocked by Ukraine.

Huge red flag here and a big lie. Let's break it down:

Those "pro russia regions" voted for Zelensky, which was very clear about Ukraine's independence and sovereignty.[0]

> I personally would not go to war for Ukraine.

At the rate you're spreading disinformation here, one does start to wonder if you're even in a Western country lmao

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_el...

Zelenskyy didn't run on anti Russian. He gained support because he ran on anti corruption and ending the wars in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He was less anti Russian than Petro Poroshenko, which is why Zelenskyy received more share than Poroshenko in those regions as opposed to more western parts of Ukraine.

Them having high pro russian perc: https://sites.tufts.edu/gis/files/2020/07/hayward_olivia_GIS...

Also those oblasts have a high ethnic population, at around ~38% https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Wild-Blue-Yonder/Articles/A...

I'm not saying those regions are more pro russia than Ukraine, but that there is non minor population in there that is pro russia, ethnically russian or speaks russian - which is why russia wants them.

What do you think the russian's end goal here is? To capture all of Ukraine? And then go to Europe?

> At the rate you're spreading disinformation here, one does start to wonder if you're even in a Western country lmao

My country shares the border with Ukraine - I'm not separated from them by an ocean. Just because you don't like facts, doesn't make it disinformation.

  I'm not saying those regions are more pro russia than Ukraine, but that there is non minor population in there that is pro russia, ethnically russian or speaks russian - which is why russia wants them.

That's a very weak argument. For example, Kherson, one of the four officially annexed regions of Ukraine, is 82% Ukrainian and only 14% Russian. Even Brighton Beach and a number of other Brooklyn neighborhoods have more Russians than that. And Russian ethnic background does not mean that they support the war: over 80% Russians in Ukraine say that Russia has no right over any part of Ukraine.

Polling leaked from Russian authorities running the occupied territories revealed the same thing: even after hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians had fled as refugees, and the remaining had been subjected to terror, nowhere did the support for joining Russia exceed 30%.

This fits nicely with the pre-war polls that showed support ranging from 1% in Kherson to 13% in Luhansk.

Kherson oblast is for the land bridge to Crimea

Theres enough ethnic russians in there, plus history, for russia to justify (to its citizens / to its allies) the invasion. I dont think the invasion is justified, but do think that russia will stop at the 4 eastern oblasts.

I dont see any good reason why russia would want to take the rest of Ukraine unless they posed a threat (e.g hosting NATO bases/missiles, which wont happen)

Maybe Im wrong. But in my opinion, it's worth the risk to stop the deaths of Ukrainian men.

  Kherson oblast is for the land bridge to Crimea

And Odessa and Mykolaiv oblasts are for the next obvious "land bridge" to Transnistria, and so forth. There's always some excuse.

Maybe. What's the alternative? Keep the war going indefinitely?

The alternative is stopping this comedic drip-feeding of tanks in batches of 4 out of misplaced expectation that Mr. Hitler will surely stop at Poland, and giving Ukraine the full support of European militaries and industries. This is by far the cheapest option. Thankfully, the latest developments indicate that things are heading exactly this way. Today, the EU agreed on increasing defense spending by 800bn. To put this into perspective: so far, Ukraine has received 64bn of military aid from the US and 62bn from Europe.

Are you suggesting that EU is purposefully limiting the military aid to Ukraine, maybe to drag out the war? I hope that's not the case.

> misplaced expectation that Mr. Hitler will surely stop at Poland

Well, US/UK did it once with USSR. They allowed SU control over Poland and east Germany.

According to iiss [1], Ukraine is "Equipped but not staffed" although they do mention "they will likely need significantly more weapons". It is my understanding (I may be wrong) that their main shortage is artillery shells, which is mainly because EU can't actually produce enough, and have been ramping up.

The 800bn sounds exciting, and hopefully we do actually get 800bn increase since 650bn is > “allow member states to significantly increase their defense expenditures without triggering” punishing rules aimed at keeping deficits from going too far into the red [2]. It is my understanding that countries may choose not to increase their defense as much, but hopefully they do as it's greatly needed in EU.

1: https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2025/0... 2: https://apnews.com/article/europe-defense-ukraine-united-sta...

  Well, US/UK did it once with USSR. They allowed SU control over Poland and east Germany.

You have forgotten the Cold War. The Russians stopped only where they were forced to stop. Western European countries set up an entire new international organization, NATO, for cooperation in case of a Russian attack on any of them, and permanently maintained massive armies to until the very end of the Soviet Union to prevent any further Russian creep west.

The US, UK, and others did not pack things up and go home at the end of WWII, believing that the Russians had their belly full with Eastern Europe and wouldn't push for more. The UK, for example, withdrew its last forces from continental Europe only in 2010. The US withdrew last combat forces in 2013.

Looks like Russia took that as an invitation to invade Ukraine the very next year.

> Maybe. What's the alternative? Keep the war going indefinitely?

Isn't that a sudden sidestep of the previous points?

My whole reasoning is that it's the best choice given the circumstances. I've said my reasons why I think Russia may be satisfied with the eastern oblasts and not seek more. User disagrees, not much I can discuss against "There's always some excuse".

My original point, was that Ukraine is losing and in my opinion, it is in their best interest to give those away if it means peace. Given that we can't agree on if Russia will be satisfied with those regions, I thought it best to shift the discussion to what options they have. I wouldn't advocate for Ukraine surrendering those territories if I thought they had better options / a chance to win the war.

  I've said my reasons why I think Russia may be satisfied with the eastern oblasts and not seek more.

Exactly the same reasons apply to other oblasts of Ukraine as well (land bridge to Transnistria), and to Poland and Lithuania (land bridge to Kaliningrad).