> Is it a given that the US would come to Tawian's defence now

In practice, probably yes, officially probably maybe. Giving a security guarantee would allow Taiwan to do provocative things, so hence, why there isn't a formal one.

If it actually came to be today, I guess the US would at-least offer token support. To (a) embargo China, (b) ensure chip facilities Taiwan aren't surrendered intact.

Both of which doesn't require winning a conflict, just making it painful.

This is both very accurate and very depressing.

'Security guarantee' conjures thoughts of defending a population and its cities from destruction, whereas what it actually means is the opposite: to ensure all items of value are fully destroyed before they're taken.

Maybe, it's also a good deterrent.

And without it, Taiwan would probably press harder for nukes.

that's a nonsensically optimistic view given current events. It's far more likely that there is no security guarantee in a treaty form precisely because the US does not intend to help Taiwan.

My understanding is that there are currently only three important chip makers, including Intel with all of their issues.

The world is largely dependent on TSMC, not only for the latest GPUs but also for embedded chips that we keep putting into everything from cars to toasters.

For me the questions isn't whether the US would help Taiwan because we're dependent on them. I wonder whether we actually have the backbone to step in militarily at all, and whether out military is as combat ready as we like to think they are.

Putin already took the land, it’s not an issue of handing over anything.