Nah. Everything we know about the B-21 indicates that it's probably pretty survivable against the Chinese air defense system. Especially for stand-off strikes near the Taiwan Strait where it wouldn't have to overfly radar stations. The design was literally optimized for exactly that purpose.

Ironically the B-21 is probably safest in the air. The greatest kinetic threat is on the ground because forward air bases generally lack hardened aircraft shelters or effective missile defense. This is another reason why maintaining deterrence against China will require a major increase in defense spending or realignment of priorities.

The whole point of procuring a platform like the B-21 is to never have to use it. The strategic calculus is that just having it gives the US a range of conventional options short of global thermonuclear war, and thus forces adversaries to be more cautious.

The greatest kinetic threat is from drone swarm attacks, which can be delivered to the vicinity of an airbase from a handful of anonymous-looking trucks or vans.

One or two grenade-strength shrapnel devices are enough to make a $700m dollar special project useless.

How does a truck drive to Diego Garcia?

There is a major shipping lane that runs SE of Diego Garcia.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:72.1/cente...

You could try a surprise drone attack from a container ship. Looks like the closest ship is about 125 miles away, that might be pushing the range a bit.

It's hard to believe the B-21 would ever be stored at a forward missile base.

They'd likely take off from the US, fly wherever they need to go for their mission without landing, and then fly all the way back to the US. Same as the B-2.

Similarly it's unlikely a drone strike is an issue due to distance.

> It's hard to believe the B-21 would ever be stored at a forward missile base.

Not a "missle base", but: "The B-52...is one of two currently at RAF Fairford in England as part of a routine Bomber Task Force (BTF) deployment." [0]

Also, more pertinent to location in scope, US has been increasing forward-based capabilities in south pacific, for example [1].

[0] https://www.twz.com/air/b-52-flies-close-to-border-of-russia...

[1] https://www.twz.com/air/massive-wwii-b-29-bomber-base-fully-...

I should not have said "missile base". I just meant any kind of forward base outside the US.

The B-52, etc.. is just different. It's not as high value of an asset as the B-2 or the B-21 will be and gets treated differently.

The Air Force already periodically deploys B-2's to forward bases within range of Chinese missile strikes.

https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/2...

Current plans are to purchase a relatively large number of B-21's. Some losses are expected and accepted.

Believe it. Forward basing would be the only way to generate useful sortie rates in that type of conflict. Transiting even from Hickam just takes too long and requires too much tanker support. We're already short of tankers; they're wearing out and not being replaced quickly enough.

I think any war with China would be predominantly economic and cyber. I don’t think it’s viable for either party to perform a mainland strikes and I don’t think it would become nuclear, but who knows. If things escalate during the current POTUS’s term, I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way.

I think any war with Russia would be, well is, economic and cyber and proxy wars.

> I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way

Current POTUS is an egomaniacal moron. Things could very easily get out of his control, especially as he dismantles the US government and sources of influence throughout the world.

>"I think it will come down to meetings and deal-makings, because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way."

Don't you think it looks more attractive than going up in flames?

> because that is POTUS’s passion and preferred way.

Just like he surrendered Ukraine to Russia. An amazing deal for everyone involved, except Ukraine.

> Those will be probably blown up from the sky very fast.

Why do you say that? I'd think B21 is better (stealthier) than B2. I think there is a story about a B2 dropping a dud on NK undetected granted NK vs. China