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Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by fragmede on Monday February 10, 2025 @12:56PM (#43003108)
Yeah. reminds me of the ancient okcupid data analysis blogs and not the creepy one by sleep8. The group I'm surprised not to see represented in their analysis is "personal", where people I know use ChatGPT as a therapist/life coach/sms analysis&editor. and of course they crucially but understandably left off the denominator. 35% of a million requests is different than 35% of a billion. and also how many of the conversations had 1 message, indicating "just testing" vs 10 or 100 messages.
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by bufferoverflow on Monday February 10, 2025 @01:45PM (#43003630)
> 35% of a million requests is different than 35% of a billion.

Not statistically.

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by alwa on Monday February 10, 2025 @01:49PM (#43003689)
A mentor I respect memorably explained to young me that “it doesn’t matter how big the pot of soup, you can use the same size spoon to taste it.”
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by beefnugs on Monday February 10, 2025 @03:27PM (#43004731)
Sorry but that mentor has a small practical imagination, a pot can be so large that the top 3 feet that you reach with that spoon could be all oil
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by alwa on Monday February 10, 2025 @03:49PM (#43004970)
True! Consistency and representativeness matter, in soup samples as in social samples!

Is the soup smooth or lumpy? Striated or uniform? For that matter a soup could (and often does) involve huge soup bones that give it important parts of its flavor, but never show up directly in a spoonful. And you might need something different from a spoon to convincingly rule out some specific rare lumpy ingredient.

The didactic value of sampling the soup pot goes well behind its basic function: correcting the beginner’s misperception that a sample’s statistical power is directly related to population size :)

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by skeeter2020 on Monday February 10, 2025 @04:05PM (#43005142)
to push this analogy too far, that's because you didn't stir it well, not because the spoon is too small.
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by prepend on Monday February 10, 2025 @05:20PM (#43006049)
Have to sample to see if it’s stirred well enough.
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by brookst on Monday February 10, 2025 @09:44PM (#43008356)
No, you can model whether stirring actions should create a representative sample
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by Terretta on Tuesday February 11, 2025 @07:12AM (#43011905)
Not with immiscible layered stratified flow…

“You're gonna need a bigger spoon!”

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by layman51 on Monday February 10, 2025 @02:18PM (#43004064)
What do you mean by “statistically”? The end results would be like three orders of magnitude apart. Wouldn’t the desired sample size depend on the size of the population itself?
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by og_kalu on Monday February 10, 2025 @05:46PM (#43006272)
>Wouldn’t the desired sample size depend on the size of the population itself?

No, The most important thing is the distribution of the sample size. You have to make sure it isn't obviously biased in some way (i.e You're only surveying students in a university for extrapolation on the entire population of the country). Beyond that, the desired sample size levels off quickly.

5000 (assuming the same distribution) won't be any more or less accurate for 10M than it is for 1M.

Of course, if you just ask everyone or almost everyone then you no longer need to worry about distribution but yeah

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by olddustytrail on Monday February 10, 2025 @03:37PM (#43004839)
Yes statistically. What do you think "statistically" means?
Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by ggm on Monday February 10, 2025 @09:32PM (#43008305)
35% of a million students in the USA is very different to 35% of a billion students across the USA, Europe and Africa.

Since there aren't a billion students in the USA, 35% of them is an impossibility.

If you scale your population above some recognized boundary you aren't sampling in the same space any more. After all the local star density to 1AU tends very strongly to 1. That's not indicative of the actual star density in the milky way.

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by rafram on Monday February 10, 2025 @02:24PM (#43004152)
> not the creepy one by sleep8

What are you referring to?

Re:The Anthropic Economic Index by fragmede on Monday February 10, 2025 @02:27PM (#43004185)
Oh I guess it was just a tweet, but still.

https://www.404media.co/ceo-reminds-everyone-eightsleep-pod-...