I trust neither. The Houthis downed a number of enemy aircraft over the years, so I don't discard they were able to do it this time again. See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_...

But if you managed do find some evidence of it being friendly fire, besides just taking US Navy word at face value, feel free to share with us.

Yes, they can down aircraft flying over their territory.

But downing an American aircraft right next to its fleet, shortly after takeoff, is not something I would imagine they could do.

Have they ever before? They claimed to have shot down a Saudi F-15 back in 2018, and even that was debunked.

Pretty unusual for a military org to cop to gross incompetence when enemy fires are a plausible explanation.

For the US Navy, admitting a friendly fire shootdown has got to be the most embarrassing thing imaginable. So, yes, I do believe them.

Really? I feel like "Iran shot down a US Navy jet" is more embarrassing than "the US shot down a US Navy jet." Not for the pilots responsible, but for the Navy as a whole. I don't have any insight on this particular story though.

Why would that be embarrassing? No aircraft is invulnerable, especially not conventional (non-stealth) aircraft.

I don’t think there is any general expectation among the American public or military that American aircraft will never be shot down.