Why do you insist that it will go the way of Libya? The rebels are calling for a peaceful and democratic transition of the government and the protection of all minorities. They've stopped using Islamist rhetoric for almost 10 years. This is as good of a regime change in Syria as it gets.

There is no counter-example of thriving democracies developed after western regime change projects. On the other hand, there’s Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

Also Italy and Austria.

If the examples springing to mind were in 1945 then that says a lot about how US efforts are going in the modern era. There is no real comparison to how the US handled defeated powers in WWII and how the State Department handles regime changes from ... I want to say the 60s onwards. All the people involved in Germany or Japan's reconstitution are dead (Ed Deming, we miss you; heros of the peace are the most impressive ones).

Which is a shame because the 1950s strategy of investment and prosperity made the world much better and the modern strategy of destabilisation tends to make it worse.

The modern Balkans seem better now than they were at the early ‘90s.

Tunisia

It is not a democracy https://time.com/7020023/tunisia-kais-saied-democracy/

I don't know what the future will bring, I said it in retrospect of the last 15 years.