The Nazis were mopping the floor with Europe until they weren’t. The Japanese were conquering Asia until they weren’t.
Why wouldn't russia use a tactical nuke in west Ukraine to destroy tank factories? They already are a international Pariah, that is why they align with North Korea.
The only answer is - to remain the last standing they have. But at some point, they might not care. It is dangerous to put someone with nukes in a desperate position. Putin would not survive retreating from Ukraine - he would be in a desperate position if the odds of war are against him - currently they ain't.
Because the Biden administration communicated to its regime (in late 2022) that this would definitely trigger a massive kinetic response. In particular it indicated that its ground forces in Ukraine would be utterly destroyed (as Putin knows it is very much capable of doing).
Don't you see, how this can turn out wrong?
But from the fact that the warning was expresed privately, and using carefully chosen language (unlike Putin's warnings, which are generally aimed at the public sphere, and are full of bluster) -- and considering, again, that the US is fully capable of carrying through with its promise in this regard -- it seems likely the message was received as intended.
Could still go wrong, but the likelihood of things going wrong by not promising any sufficiently serious consequences at all to Russia's regime if it actually deploys nukes seems to be (unequivocally) far greater.
I see, you have personally checked the russian nukes and found they are all worthless? Or have access to top secret informations confirming that?
Otherwise it seems a bit out of this world, to claim the country with the most nukes on earth is a paper tiger.
And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well. That tale comes from the fantasy, that Ukraine is facing russia alone. But the whole NATO is supporting it. Without NATOs weapons and money, Ukraine would have been russian since over 2 years.
But yes, I do have fear. But more from people like you, who look at reality in a way, that fits their ideology.
Just assume for a moment, you are wrong. What would happen as a result, if the people in command would think like you?
> And the russian conventional military is far from a paper tiger as well.
Lol okay.
> Just assume for a moment, you are wrong
How about you assume that you are wrong, and you are volunteering for a world where once a nation acquires a nuclear weapon they are allowed to run roughshod over the entire world, raping whoever they want, torturing whoever they want, and cowards will just line up and beg the victims to allow them to continue? Do you hear yourself?
The alternative here is not sunshine and rainbows. The alternative is an even more vigorous race to nuclear weapons from the most vicious regimes on the planet and more horrific crimes committed and excused under nuclear blackmail.
If Russia launches a nuke, they are the criminals. Not the people who stood up to them and "forced" them to do it. Russia has all the agency in the world. They could turn around and march back to Moscow today. How about you go do your "peacemaking" beggar appeasement routine on VK and tell Russians to tremble in fear of the United States deleting their civilization?
Yes, I can hear myself. And I never said anything like it. And I doubt you can point to where I said or wrote such things. All this thread was about the question if russia would use nukes.
It is telling, that for you just the realisation of this possibility, automatically assumes surrender.
Well, not for me. I am a strong proponent of weapon delivery and training for Ukraine. Despite the chance, that russia might use a tactial nuke. Rumors have it, that at the succesful Ukrainian Cherson offensive 2 years ago - there was serious fear in russian command and increasing pressure of using a small nuke, so much that some western agencies saw the chance at 50%. If the offensive would have moved on towards Krim, then it likely would have happened. And this still did not change - russia (beyond Putin) is very unwilling to give up the Krim. And I can see worse outcomes, than the Krim remaining russian.
Or do you just want the rule of international law and criminals must not be rewarded for aggression? Yeah, I would like that, too. But before demanding total victory over russia for the sake of law at the risk of an allout nuclear war, I see some other chances of improving international law. For example doing something about turkeys conquering. Or Aserbaidschan. Or get the US to abolish the hague invasion act
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Pr.... Or look at some other allies. Etc.
"Russia will not use nukes."
Would you embark on some argument about how technically they might actually be able to do that?
It is real, that russia made nuclear threats and expresses increasing frustration that their threats get ignored.
It is also real, that many people, also here, say the threats are completely empty.
And I am sceptical about that claim.
No idea how your gasoline river fits in that reality.
National security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC News' "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the consequences "would be catastrophic if Russia went down the dark road of nuclear weapons use."
Secretary of State Antony Blinken used similar language in an interview with CBS News' "60 Minutes."
"It's very important that Moscow hear from us and know from us that the consequences would be horrific, and we've made that very clear," he said, adding that the U.S. response would be "catastrophic" without elaborating.
A most interesting question is: Would survive Trump?
Russia is getting bombed every day and doesn’t even hold all of its initial territory. It is not clear who will win this.
It is extremely obvious that Russia would be crushed within days by a confrontation with NATO (but this conflict almost certainly wouldn't materialize due to nuclear weapons).
It's interesting the extent to which people haven't internalized this. Russia's industry has really ramped up on military production in the past two years, and their military will eventually get to the point where it can cause tremendous damage against a poorly-equipped Ukraine, through attrition. But the invasion revealed how far behind they are technologically, and a combined NATO force would turn off their entire military's command and control on day one of a real conflict.
It's an inversion of the situation forty or fifty years ago, when Europe had to rely on the the nuclear threat because the Russian conventional forces were considered to be overwhelming.