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Re:Jeff Bezos killed Washington Post endorsement of Kamala H... by dragonwriter on Saturday October 26, 2024 @05:17PM (#41957798)
Even the betting sites where Trump is extremely (as in, much more than in the poll-based forecast sites) favored to win the electoral college, like Polymarket, have Harris a strong favorite to win the most votes, just as the poll-based forecasts generally do.

E.g, Polymarket, which gives Trump a 65% chance to win the EC compared to 538s 53%, has Harris at 58% to win the popular vote compared to 538s 65%. (And while it is possible for the popular vote winner to have a mere plurality of votes, it is not possible to get a majority of votes and not be the popular vote winner, so, no, the source of evidence you cite does not support the claim that "by the looks of it, the majority of people" will vote are going to vote for Trump, but instead support that the majority will most likely not do so.)

Re:Jeff Bezos killed Washington Post endorsement of Kamala H... by tdhz77 on Saturday October 26, 2024 @07:35PM (#41958546)
At the end of the day, you will find this prediction markets to be as successful as sports betters. We would be wise to remove all money from politics.
Re:Jeff Bezos killed Washington Post endorsement of Kamala H... by defrost on Saturday October 26, 2024 @07:49PM (#41958634)
Rational well managed sports betters are quite successful.

Paddy Power (as one example) has grown in 36 years to now have > £11 billion revenue per annum with a net income of some £1.2 billion.