The only question is how fast it is going to happen. Ie what percentage of jobs is going to be replaced next year and so on.
There is a lot about the human brain that even the world's top neuroscientists don't know. There's plenty of magic about it if we define magic as undiscovered knowledge.
There's also no consensus among top AI researchers that current techniques like LLMs will get us anywhere close to AGI.
Nothing I've seen on current models (not even o1-preview) suggests to me that AIs can reason about codebases of more than 5k LOC. A top 5% engineer can probably make sense of a codebase of a couple million LOC in time.
Which models specifically have you seen that are looking like they will be able to surmount any time soon the challenges of software design and architecture I'm laying out in my previous comment?
The majority of people on the planet can barely reason about how any given politician will affect them, even when there’s a billion resources out there telling them exactly that. No reasonable human would ever define AGI as having anything to do with coding at all, since that’s not even “general intelligence”… it’s learned facts and logic.
When someone comes up with a rigorous definition of intelligence.
I haven't moved any goal posts - it is your definition which is way too narrow.
I’m sure as soon as Claude can handle 5MLOC you’ll say it should be 10, and it needs to make sure it can serve you a Michelin star dinner as well.
That’s not AGI. Stop moving the goalposts.
ARC-AGI Benchmark might serve as a canary in the coal mine.
Whereas software defects in design and architecture subtly accumulate, until they leave the codebase in a state in which it becomes utterly unworkable. It is one of the chief reasons why good devs get paid what they do. Software discussions very often underrate software extensibility, or in other words, its structural and architectural scaleability. Even software correctness is trivial in comparison - you can't even keep writing correct code if you've made an unworkable tire-fire. This could be a massive mountain for AI to climb.