You've gone from false to unfalsifiable! (or at least unnecessarily vague).

- Plenty of electric drivetrains still use neodymium for example[0]. Whether it's too much or likely to change soon I don't know, but I feel like that's crucial to making a judgement on the overall harmfulness.

- Battery recycling is happening[1], but so is plastic recycling. Are batteries likely to be recycled, and are the environmental benefits and available profit sufficient to make it significant in the near future? Seems like yes, but it's not clear to me.

- Which grid? Is capacity sufficient just on average, or also at peak demand? Would that still be the case if EV adoption increases in the next five years? (or some timescale to short to build more plants). Looks like the US will do ok[2] but again it's not obvious.

- Does this also apply to buying new? Are you including resale value? What about carbon generated at power stations to provide the electrical power? This is a complex claim and it's hard to do anything with unless it's sharpened and given some numbers or at least references. Seems like price to consumer is roughly the same[3] and CO2 emissions even over about five years of normal use and will improve if the grid moves towards cleaner fuel[4].

Overall I think it's annoying for a commenter who knows the truth to go to the trouble of being convincing, but it's critical for having an interesting discussion that might change someone's mind.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/automa...

[1] https://www.npr.org/2024/06/27/nx-s1-5019454/ev-battery-recy...

[2] https://news.mit.edu/2023/minimizing-electric-vehicles-impac...

[3] https://www.nada.org/nada/nada-headlines/beyond-sticker-pric...

[4] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-vehicles...

Considering how early we get rid of cars that are still usable. I wonder how well the cost of ownership actually holds over when a battery change can overshadow many years of maintenance of an ICE.

I really think as soon as batteries get even cheaper and denser there will be no chance for ICEs to be dominant but right now the balance is still against the change.

I’m particularly interested in last three points. Do you mind to share some data?

For instance, where one recycle a Tesla battery, say in Poland?

I do not see to many chargers around and I believe the grid is not very modern here. Why do you think it can easily handle millions EVs? What about peak hours like nights? Do you think it will be env friendly, provided that majority of electricity in Poland is produced on coal plants.

EV initial cost is about 5-10 times more than a slightly used ICE in a perfect condition. Such a car car drive decades and will never reach in total spendings even initial cost of EV. I’m not counting charging that may not be very cheap. As electricity prices went up in recent years and may go up more.

When you stating something, think beyond your household. Your statements are not universal.

The battery can be recycled in Germany if Poland doesn't have the facility.

I think shifting them to static applications when they hit 70% capacity makes more sense, personally. For now, just recycle the ones that have actually failed. Or even just warehouse them until they can be recycled.

(Whether we actually do that or not, capitalism being what it is....)

> Electric motors use low amounts of rare earth metals, or in some cases none. Batteries generally don't use them either.

Maybe the term “rare” was poorly chosen. But mining those metals is the damaging part, not the abundance of the metals.

So my point is still correct.

> Automotive batteries have been demonstrated as >90% recyclable, far better than most materials we consider "recyclable" today such as plastic

Citation needed.

EV batteries are reused in some less demanding domains for a couple of years after their life in EVs. but everything that I’ve read thus far has said recycling the batteries themselves, after their life is done, is still very much in its infancy.

> The electric grid has sufficient capacity to onboard millions of electric cars without issue, and will not be impacted by the transition to EVs

Most country’s electric grids do. That’s the bloody point of a grid. It’s the last mile that’s the issue in some counties.

However I will concede that this point is a little unfair because it’s non-specific.

> Cost of ownership of EVs is significantly lower than ICE vehicles in their class, as is the lifetime carbon footprint

That depends. If you’re an occasional driver and charging your car at home, then the cost of electricity in some countries is going to be greater than the cost of petrol.

However if you travel lots and are heavily use charge stations at super markets et al, then EVs will be much cheaper to run than ICE.

It’s definitely not as clear cut as a lot of EV marketing claims.

(I’ve been adding up the costs just this month because was looking at buying an EV and it just wasn’t a cost saving for my particular requirements).

>> Automotive batteries have been demonstrated as >90% recyclable, far better than most materials we consider "recyclable" today such as plastic

> Citation needed

It shouldn't be hard to believe. The components of a battery aren't consumed during operation. An old battery weighs the same as a new battery, and the chemical reactions taking place inside are reversible (because that's how a chemical battery works).

I believe, though, the the previous commenter erred. 90% of _batteries_ are recycled.

According to Wikipedia, lithium battery recycling can see up to 96% recovery rate of material. Lead acid is over 98% of the lead.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battery_recycling

> However if you travel lots and are heavily use charge stations at super markets et al, then EVs will be much cheaper to run than ICE.

This statement is confusing to me.

In my experience in the US, charging away from home is far more expensive.

Charging at home has added an average of $10/month to our electric bill. Charging at a commercial charger can easily cost $5-$10 _per charge_.

At home I have a 3kw charger, one of the lowest options you can buy. I prefer to take time and keep the battery cool. Heat kills batteries faster.

Your statement about your cost comparison doesn't mention maintenance, which is a significant savings. No oil changes, no rusted exhaust pipes, no spark plugs, etc. Over the life of the car, that's tens of thousands of dollars unspent.

> in my experience in the US, charging away from home is far more expensive

We have lots of free charging points in the UK. Or at least they do around me.

> Your statement about your cost comparison doesn't mention maintenance, which is a significant savings. No oil changes, no rusted exhaust pipes, no spark plugs, etc. Over the life of the car, that's tens of thousands of dollars unspent.

In my experience the maintenance costs is usually more tyres, suspension, breaks, and other similar things that would equally need to be maintained on EVs.

Oil changes and spark plugs are cheap. Never had an issue with my exhaust pipe but I’m sure that’s a thing. Have had clutches burn out but that’s always been more specific to manual shifts rather than ICEs. Cam belts is definitely one big ICE consumable that EVs wouldn’t require though.

I’m sure EVs will have their own specific areas of maintenance as well, but I’ll admit I haven’t done much research in that specific area.

> In my experience the maintenance costs is usually more tyres, suspension, breaks, and other similar things that would equally need to be maintained on EVs.

You'll go through tires _slightly_ faster because the cars are heavier. With the exception of some standouts like Tesla's Cybertruck, which reportedly is only getting 6k miles on a set of tires, the wear rate is slightly higher. Low rolling resistance tires are slightly more expensive. Plan on whatever you're paying now plus 20% to cover the difference.

I've never had to change the suspension on any of my cars. I wouldn't even consider it in a maintenance list unless you live somewhere with truly shit roads, but the mileage and repair cost would be the same in EV or ICE.

Brakes last forever in an EV. 100k miles easily.

Oil changes in the US cost $50+, and are done every 3-4k miles (or $75+, 7-10k miles if you choose synthetic oil).

Spark plugs are cheap, but paying someone to replace them is not.

Some EVs have liquid cooling, but it lasts longer than coolant in an ICE.

I'm so used to people around me driving automatics, I forget to consider a clutch - but I get >100k per clutch so it's not a frequent or predictable cost for me.

Most recent cars, even the small ones, seem to have swung back to using timing chains rather than belts, and don't need regular changes. You can consider it if you like, but you have to take it on a case-by-case basis.

Unless you don't keep your cars long enough to notice, your exhaust system will rust. Water is a byproduct of combustion, after all, and steam corrodes faster than liquid water. It's worse if you make lots of short trips - which is where an EV shines.

Also consider non-regularly-replaced things in your maintenance list: oxygen sensors, water pumps, thermostats, heater cores, etc. You can't predict when these things will fail, but over 10 years you'll almost certainly have to replace some of them.

Consider, also, downtime while your car is in the shop getting the work done.

Contrast to an EV: none of that. A new battery in 150k-200k miles for $5k, unless you're still satisfied with the reduced range.

You’re drastically overstating the differences between ICE and EV there. But that might be a side effect of American cars vs European cars.

I don't think I'm overstating anything.

My wife and I have owned an EV since 2019. We also still have a couple of ICEs for me and my daughter. I'm not going to throw a car away just because.

I see the cost savings of an EV up close and personal. The only downside has been range for long trips, but 364 days of the year that's not a problem and for the remaining days my ICE does the job. When that car dies, I'll rent one when it's needed.

So you’re comparing EVs that are > 5 years old with ICE vehicles that are < 5 years old. Or there’s a massive disparity between American and European ICE cars under 5 years. But I definitely have never spent the kind of money on maintenance you’ve described on cars younger than 5 years old.

I think your last sentence is it: those track for American vehicles. Longer driving distances, worse road conditions, and people buy unnecessarily large SUVs/trucks so most parts are 30-50% more expensive.

> We have lots of free charging points in the UK

Wait, we do? There are people out there just giving away energy?

(I think I must have misunderstood you here).

The grid is quite country specific. For example in the Netherlands there are significant grid capacity issues, so much that people with solar panels are paid on some areas to turn them off.

EV adoption here is high compared to the European average (similar to Norway). Public charging stations in affected areas are reducing capacity or even shutting down at certain times.

So grid capacity is an actual problem here.