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Re:Stephen Fry – AI: A Means to an End or a Means to Our End? by SirHumphrey on Monday September 16, 2024 @01:36PM (#41558461)
I think there exists a point, where AI stops making sense in a cost equation. Currently we are well accustomed that machines are cheap and humans are expensive, and anything that can be done by machine instead of by a human means a cost reduction. At some point that probably stops, because the amount of compute you need to run larger and larger models means that humans can become cost competitive. It's a bit like in manufacturing, where cost of robotization is sometimes more than just the cost of employing humans.

And in the end, this long term predictions based on where we are now and how fast we are moving are always a bit iffy. Nobody really know what challenges must current AI overcome to become AGI (if that even means anything).

Re:Stephen Fry – AI: A Means to an End or a Means to Our End? by moffkalast on Monday September 16, 2024 @01:48PM (#41558609)
Yeah it's just what I suppose might be the inevitable outcome for the very far future, assuming incremental improvements in all forms over a long time.

For the short term it's honestly way harder to say, there could easily be another 50 year winter in between. But machines improve, and humans don't, so as long as non-zero progress is made it's a virtual certainty.