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Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by dist-epoch on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:18AM (#41092117)
As someone said in an article about detecting bullshit science research, if such an effect were true, every day at noon tragedies and accidents would happen all over the world, and we would live in a different world where work close to lunch was illegal and so on, just like we forbid work under alcohol.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by altvali on Sunday July 28, 2024 @06:00AM (#41092242)
Lead was added to gasoline since the 1920s. The first clinical studies that showed it was toxic were in 1969. The first country to ban it completely was Japan in 1986 and the last was Algeria in 2021. For more than a decade, people could have made a similar claim to yours, "if such an effect were true, we would have banned it already". And they would have been wrong, the effect was true.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by vitus on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:19AM (#41092497)
> The first clinical studies that showed it was toxic were in 1969.

We knew it was dangerous within a year of it being introduced, even if we didn't publish widespread clinical studies before the 60s. Its creator, Thomas Midgley Jr, was diagnosed with lead poisoning multiple times.

> Warnings about the toxicity of tetraethyllead came to Midgley from various sources. The letter of Erich Krause concerning its toxic effects, quoted in part in part 1,2 written on November 30, 1922, to George Calingaert (then at M.I.T.) was forwarded to Midgley in December 1922 by W. G. Whitman, Assistant Director of the M.I.T. Research Laboratory of Applied Chemistry. However, despite his own health problems and these early warnings, Midgley did not appear to be overly concerned about the health issues associated with the handling and use of tetraethyllead.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/om030621b

There's also some discussion at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Initial_controv... suggesting that early studies may have been suppressed by the lead industry.

> In the years that followed, research was heavily funded by the lead industry; in 1943, Randolph Byers found children with lead poisoning had behavior problems, but the Lead Industries Association threatened him with a lawsuit and the research ended.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by IshKebab on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:06AM (#41092692)
The effect of lead toxicity is not immediately and enormous so it is not remotely analogous.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by porksoda on Sunday July 28, 2024 @09:57AM (#41093178)
The effect of a grumpy person sending Bob to jail is also not immediate or enormous (unless you are bob or bob's family).
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by IshKebab on Sunday July 28, 2024 @02:10PM (#41094875)
You've misunderstood. The effect is measurable immediately (guilty or not guilty) and the size of the effect (65% to 0%) is enormous.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by DangitBobby on Sunday July 28, 2024 @02:20PM (#41094949)
Judges are not the only people who need to eat.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by dmurray on Sunday July 28, 2024 @09:51AM (#41093128)
> Lead was added to gasoline since the 1920s...the last was Algeria in 2021.

Right, so we figure these things out within 100 years or so at most. We've been dealing with hunger for millions of years, you'd expect there to be something in the Torah about how no man shall act as a judge before he's had lunch.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by FergusArgyll on Monday July 29, 2024 @09:02AM (#41100136)
עַד מָתַי יוֹשְׁבִין בַּדִּין? אָמַר רַב שֵׁשֶׁת: עַד זְמַן סְעוּדָה. אָמַר רַב חָמָא: מַאי קְרָא? — דִּכְתִיב: ״אִי לָךְ אֶרֶץ שֶׁמַּלְכֵּךְ נָעַר וְשָׂרַיִךְ בַּבֹּקֶר יֹאכֵלוּ. אַשְׁרֵיךְ אֶרֶץ שֶׁמַּלְכֵּךְ בֶּן חוֹרִים וְשָׂרַיִךְ בָּעֵת יֹאכֵלוּ בִּגְבוּרָה וְלֹא בַשְּׁתִי״.

Until when do they sit in judgment? ? Rav Sheshet said: Until mealtime, noon. Rav Ḥama said: What is the verse that alludes to this? As it is written: “Woe to you, land that your king is a lad and your ministers eat in the morning. Happy are you, land that your king is free and your ministers eat on time in strength and not in drunkenness”

-Shabbos 10a

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by mjburgess on Sunday July 28, 2024 @06:20AM (#41092306)
It's funny that no one's understanding your claim.

The effect size claimed for the original paper, as well as how obvious and localised the effect is, would make it incredibly obvious to observe. Thus if this effect were true, we would have to explain how we've all missed it.

This is not comparable to long-term effects, or ones otherwise difficult to notice, etc. We notice the effects of alcohol immediately, and here, it's claimed being hungry-for-lunch is at least as large, if not larger, effect.

This seems obvious nonsense. If any other statistical model can explain the same effect, it's vastly more likely, since it benefits from not making a miracle out of our missing the lethality of mild lunchtime hunger.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by ClumsyPilot on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:28AM (#41092146)
> and accidents would happen all over the world, and we would live in a different world where work close to lunch was illegal and so on,

Not at all, as a society ee are really good at ignoring terrible consequences of our decisions and carrying on regardless, sometimes for no reason other than habit.

We force children to go to school early despite mountains of evidence that this harms their learning, we give antibiotics to healthy livestock despite absolute proof that this causes antibiotic resistance, you can probably add more to this list, I.e climate change, etc.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by dist-epoch on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:36AM (#41092180)
Nassim Taleb has a theory that the primary purpose of school is not to educate children, but to keep them from roaming the streets and causing mayhem. Learning is a side-effect.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by hnthrowaway121 on Sunday July 28, 2024 @06:38AM (#41092362)
Also, to acclimatize them to the structure of working where we spend massive amounts of our time carrying out arbitrary tasks with arbitrary deadlines. The core work skill for many jobs is our ability to both believe and co-create the shared fiction that they are important enough to even spend time on in the first place.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by f1shy on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:59AM (#41092241)
I did not know that. But I was told primary school is not only to teach the basics, but also (and even more important) to start forming social individuals to form a society. That is one of the reasons primary school is (typically) compulsory, presencial, and the based in groups that grow together for some years. Also is part of the primary school teaching respect for the Flag, the history and heros, anthem, etc. also patriotic holidays, like independence day, imply special works for the kids, actuation and what not. They have to learn to live their country.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by brabel on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:14AM (#41092729)
That's all true, but let's not forget the actual reason for children starting school very early in the morning is basically so that their parents can drop them at school and go to work.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by kwhitefoot on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:20AM (#41092747)
> to start forming social individuals to form a society.

That's the explicit purpose of barnehage (from one to five years old) in Scandinavia, specifically Norway. That's preschool or kindergarten in other countries but without any academic instruction at all. Every child is guaranteed a place and the cost is strictly limited.

> Also is part of the primary school teaching respect for the Flag, the history and heros, anthem, etc. also patriotic holidays, like independence day,

We don't have that. I suppose that Constitution Day (17th May) has some slight similarity with American Independence Day. The barnehage children will walk in the procession waving flags but it's not really the same.

Of course part of the reason that hero worship isn't inculcated in barnehage in Norway is probably because every Norwegian has an unshakeable belief in the greatness of Norwegians (especially in regard to skiing championships against the Swedes) so it is unnecessary.

I exaggerate of course, but slightly. :-)

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by SoftTalker on Sunday July 28, 2024 @02:08PM (#41094856)
In my experience the Scandinavian countries fly flags for any reason or no reason at all. Birthday? Flags. Christmas? Flags. Wedding? Anniversary? Flags. Friend visiting from out of town? Flags. They are use for any celebration.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by 4ndrewl on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:47AM (#41092212)
Has anyone discovered the primary purpose of Nassim Taleb though?
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tedunangst on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:11PM (#41096000)
Max deadlift.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by bonoboTP on Sunday July 28, 2024 @10:52AM (#41093556)
I don't think 6-8-year-olds would cause a lot of mayhem. But parents need to go to work and kids aren't trusted to supervise themselves at that age (analogous to kindergarten before it). For teenagers the mayhem thing is also doubtful because school usually ends around 1-2 pm, while parents only finish working around 5 pm, so there's plenty of time to roam in the afternoon (at least outside present day America where parents drive kids around until late teenage years - which really is rather the exception in the broader context of school tradition).
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by bowsamic on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:25AM (#41092137)
> just like we forbid work under alcohol

Do we? In many companies there is free infinite beer

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by throwawayFinX on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:24AM (#41092519)
This surprises me. Are you speaking from a US point of view?

In many west european countries it is forbidden to consume alcohol in work hours, except at company-arranged events etc. and/or to be intoxicated.

For a comparative overview of the practical differences: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9779578/

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by bowsamic on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:47AM (#41092607)
I live in Germany and a lot of companies still have free beer on tap and the managers will pressure you to drink during work hours

From the article you posted:

> Therefore, in most companies and public administration, it is solely at the discretion of employers as to what extent they tolerate alcohol consumption by their employees. The employer has the right to impose sanctions on the employee who refuses to take an alcohol test, which may result in loss of employment or suspension [53]. In Germany, regional and cultural particularities can be decisive; for example, in Lower and Upper Bavaria and in Franconia it is still common for many companies’ employees to have a glass of beer during the lunch break.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by throwawayFinX on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:58AM (#41092872)
Haha interesting! Which sector are you in?

I work for a German-owned industry corporation (in a nearby EU country) and would get fired for having a friday beer with colleagues if not at company-arranged “friday bar” or some other event :)

No national law requires this strictness, but +95% of companies in my country have simular rules in place.

My German colleagues are mostly serious when saying “Kein Bier vor vier” (i.e. no beers before 16:00/work ends).

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by bowsamic on Sunday July 28, 2024 @09:04AM (#41092896)
My wife is in mechanical engineering. I am in academia. I think in my job there would be more pressure against it, but that's mainly because it's younger people. In my wife job, the CEO goes around encouraging people to drink while working, especially on Fridays.

> My German colleagues are mostly serious when saying “Kein Bier vor vier” (i.e. no beers before 16:00/work ends).

4pm doesn't mean that work ends then though. Many people continue working after that beer.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tbrownaw on Sunday July 28, 2024 @04:59PM (#41095922)
> industry corporation

If this means factories full of machinery that can be very dangerous if safety rules aren't followed, it probably makes sense that they'd have stricter rules than say a small webdev shop.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by throwawayFinX on Tuesday July 30, 2024 @07:21AM (#41107971)
I think there is a 20/80 split between blue collar and white collar workers here at the HQ in Westphalia. So mostly a cubicle-farm of sorts.

I asked around and my german colleagues tell me it is a Bavarian thing with the beers.

> 4pm doesn't mean that work ends then though. Many people continue working after that beer.

We are also offered a beer a few times at official Company events etc. and most can have a beer and do proper work after. It is also legal to drive after a single normal-sized beer.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by ClumsyPilot on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:29AM (#41092153)
In British parliament the most important people in the country get alcohol subsidised by the taxpayer. And they regularly find drugs in the bathroom.

You’d think that if anyone, these people would have to be sober.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by graemep on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:32AM (#41092167)
If you assume what MPs do is all that important. They mostly just do what their told by their party leadership anyway, and the rest of the time they are making decisions about things they know nothing about.

Someone did a survey of how much MPs knew about economics and the results were dire, and they is something good many have been taught (all those PPE degrees!) and that is really important to them.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by 4ndrewl on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:49AM (#41092216)
You're ignoring constituency work.

Do you have a source for the "someone"?

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by graemep on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:30AM (#41092540)
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by switch007 on Sunday July 28, 2024 @05:35AM (#41092178)
They do important work for their constituents. Let's not insinuate MPs are irrelevant

Would you rather they were dispensed with and instead we have a dictatorship?

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by LordN00b on Sunday July 28, 2024 @06:05AM (#41092261)
Not having MPs doesn't lead to a dictorship, dial it back. Not having MPs means that we don't have MPs,(hooray) and the opportunity to replace them with something alittle more equitable to the society they exist in, free of the influences of lobbying, cronyism, greed, power and rampant, unchecked hypocrisy. Personally, I want a new class of people, styled after monks that spend 20 years being schooled in social structure, land husbandry, city welfare etc. These are then cloistered for the term that they serve and can only be approached by the permanent Civil Service when required. The local consituants are served by local councillers, (probably all of whom are lib dem as they are unconsionably successful at local issues). Anyway down with parlimentary democracy, and have a nice Sunday.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by jon-wood on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:15AM (#41092480)
This approach does appeal to me in some ways, one of the things that excites me most about the current government is seeing people with experience being appointed to position in cabinet.

I’m pretty sure you’re not serious in suggesting a technocrat class who are sheltered from the real world, but let’s assume you weren’t. The end result of this is likely to be stagnation because you lack the introduction of new people and new views into positions of power. I’d also add that in a functional government we already have that class of people who are purely focused on implementation and looking at options in the Civil Service. Rarely is a cabinet minister themselves really coming up with ideas, they’re waving their arms and describing vibes to the Civil Service, who then go and work how they’re meant to achieve it.

Unfortunately for the last 14 years we’ve had a government asking them to do ever more unhinged things, with predictable results.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by another-dave on Sunday July 28, 2024 @07:45AM (#41092600)
Or you could do like a ancient Greece where serving in the Senate was more like jury duty & people are appointed by random ballot.

I think representative democracy is fine, it's career politicians I'd do away with.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by kwhitefoot on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:23AM (#41092758)
> appointed by random ballot.

The term for this kind of election is sortition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sortition

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by graemep on Tuesday July 30, 2024 @04:28AM (#41107159)
I would favour just appointing people by random ballot (not from a particular group). That would be far more representative of the population. It would solve issues like having fair representation for women of ethnic minorities etc.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tsimionescu on Sunday July 28, 2024 @06:18AM (#41092300)
What you're describing is a form of technocracy (rule by a class of dedicated scholars). It has been tried occasionally, but it is essentially the same thing as any non-Democratic rule: the technocrats do what is best for themselves, and using their knowledge and expertise, are able to invent convincing reasons on why that is supposedly best for the country as well.

This is especially true when the "science" they are supposed to study is economics, a notorious pseudo-science whose real purpose is to act as justificationa for policies desired by whoever is paying the research.

There is no way to ensure that rulers align with the people unless the people have a say in who rules. Scientific authorities have a long history of being negative even for their own fields ("physics advances one funeral at a time"), and that doesn't change when they are given power over an entire country.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by brabel on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:25AM (#41092762)
With the current MPs, why do you think they do not do what's best for themselves, or for whoever is sponsoring their political campaigns and lobbying them constantly? The question is not whether a technocracy would be perfect, it's whether it would be better than that, and your argument has zero explanatory power to answer that.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tsimionescu on Sunday July 28, 2024 @10:43AM (#41093490)
Because they still need to win an election, so at least some of them need to do at least a few things that makes them popular enough. A technocrat only needs to make sure people aren't so desperate as to rise up.

This is really simple political theory, not some advanced concepts.

Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by brabel on Sunday July 28, 2024 @11:27AM (#41093863)
Nobody said the technocrats wouldn't also be elected, you made that up.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tsimionescu on Sunday July 28, 2024 @01:33PM (#41094611)
So you simply want MPs who have a minimum standard of education? The fact that they are kept isolated for the duration of their term? That wouldn't prevent them from being bribed and lobbied in their election campaigns.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by switch007 on Sunday July 28, 2024 @09:16AM (#41092939)
And the leaders of the proposed technocracy would be immune from lobbying and bribes?
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by brabel on Sunday July 28, 2024 @11:26AM (#41093856)
Yes, because they would be easily "caught" if they didn't make decisions based on merit.
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by tsimionescu on Sunday July 28, 2024 @01:31PM (#41094592)
By whom? What new institution that doesn't work today would work then?
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by brabel on Sunday July 28, 2024 @08:21AM (#41092752)
There was a party in Australia that wanted to elect MPs (or whatever equivalent) whose only job would be to delegate decisions to a panel of independent experts in each field (I think the panel would be elected as well, don't remember the details, but it would be something like doctors deciding what public health decisions should be, for example), and IIRC sometimes decisions would be made by having polls where every member of the party could vote if the policy was not related to some field in particular. I think that didn't get anywhere though, unfortunately, as the idea sounds pretty damn superior to having a bunch of know-nothing but charismatic people who decide on all sorts of things pushed by lobbyists whose interest not always reflect that of the general population (or very rarely do so).
Re:The irrational hungry judge effect revisited by graemep on Tuesday July 30, 2024 @04:33AM (#41107183)
The problem with that most important decisions cover multiple fields. For example public health decisions are not purely medical. They have financial and economic implications. They are sometimes tied to issues of personal liberty. They operative in a framework of laws. They are often organisational and management decisions (e.g. where to build a hospital, how many ambulances to buy).

In general important decisions require many different skills.

This will also lead to the problem raised earlier of experts making decisions that suit their own interests (and biases).