What types of jobs do you think humans will remain superior at forever? Or are you only commenting on the short-term improbability of humans becoming generally outcompeted?

Highly tactile jobs and those in unstandardized environments (plumbers, electricians, etc) are famously difficult for machines to do, and they’ve made little to no progress in that department.

It's true that general-purpose robots have made little progress, compared to general-purpose AI, but the reasons for that might just be financial. AI has become a self-justifying busines model whereas generalist robots are still academic projects, kind of how deep learning was a decade+ ago. Maybe making tactile-aware robots that can navigate random environments will end up being subsumed by ML algorithms using cheapo hardware, kind of like this:

https://mobile-aloha.github.io/

AFAIK this is the current for-profit SOTA robot, which goes for $16,000:

https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...

My guess is that it's just an expensive toy, only useful to robotics researchers. But I can imagine in 10 years the big LLM+vision models could somehow pilot them, perhaps very slowly compared to a human, but as long as they can finish the job at 0.1% of a human's wage, it might not really matter how much slower they are.

We weren't talking about reality we were talking about a hypothetical future after this slope has been slipped

If it comes to pass it sounds very grim

And it does seem like the direction we are heading in, with less and less likelihood of slowing or reversing course

I think this is myopic and you're the one describing an utopia. Or a dystopia, depending on how one looks at it.

Are you paying attention to the sorts of things that AI is currently being used for?

It's generating drawings and music and games and such

It's not replacing fast food service workers, or retail or farmers or plumbers. It's not replacing the shitty grunt work

It's replacing the creative, beautiful stuff

I'm not being childish. I'm simply looking at reality without my head in the sand

Haven't seen any AI potters, quilters, muralists or landscape gardeners yet.

It's replacing work that is purely to do with information.

Years ago there was talk about the "anywheres" vs. the "somewheres" - people who can do their jobs from anywhere (home, a cafe, a plane, the other side of the world) vs people whose work is necessaily rooted to a particular place. Your plumbers and farmers and retail workers.

AI can replace "anywhere" work, but there is little progress in robotics. Replacing "somewhere" work is many years away.

>but there is little progress in robotics. Replacing "somewhere" work is many years away.

I agree there's little progress in robotics, relative to AI. But "many years away" might mean just 10 years away. You can buy this robot for 16 grand USD:

https://www.unitree.com/images/Unitree%20G1%20EN%201080p%20%...

To me, it feels like the barrier now is more on the software end than the hardware end. Is this your impression too, or do you disagree?

You might want to read OpenAI charter. [0] It might be not very close to reality currently, but building this replacement and becoming the gatekeeper is literally their declared goal and purpose of existence. And this is what you probably should see as the main "AI threat" (not from the tech itself but from the people controlling it), because if it's possible at all, it might come to reality way earlier than the nonsense rogue AGI fantasy used as a red herring to distract everybody.

[0] https://openai.com/charter/