But even if they were landing people on Mars right now, I don't see how that would be evidence they could win a nuclear war.
Well that escalated quickly! I think in that case, the artillery shell production will be last of our concerns.
I see different and more feasible scenarios: An unsatisfactory peace in Ukraine that will leave neither Russia or Ukraine happy.
Any political weakness or apathy from the US side, will be picked quickly by China as the best opportunity in 50 years...
China will progressively increase their exercises. First as like now to involve 50 airplanes and 20 ships...then 100 planes and 50 ships...then 250 planes and 100 ships, getting closer and closer to the last 20 to 25 miles of Taiwan, until the day the exercise will become an incursion, that goes for directly targeting heads of government. Probably by then hundreds of soldiers disguised as business men already will be in Taiwan.
Even if the US decides to intervene it will arrive days to weeks too late, and will make a big fuss but decide its not worth it. Specially if enough TSMC facilities are already running in the US.
You build a very strong army, either to defend or to attack. Nobody is a threat to China or want's anything from China, so they are not creating an army to defend assets...
Americans have been fed a steady stream of propaganda that they're the best at everything and that no one else in the world even comes close -- especially military stuff.
Some people just cannot conceive of a world where America isn't the best, especially militarily and they cannot conceive of a world where anyone else could ever close the gap.
America spent 20 years grinding down international good will and their armed forces in waste of time conflicts that went no where while China has spent their time fastidiously consolidating economic infrastructure to wage a long term war. What does America have to show for any of it?
Now I think it's definitely likely that America could muster up the strength to fight China, but that won't happen until enough people realize that they're facing legitimate existential threat.
Acknowledging that threat means fixing fundamental flaws in our modern economy and society -- We need wake the fuck up to the rampant corruption and graft in our society and get a manufacturing economy that benefits the little guy and not some grease-bag rent-seeking parasites who contribute nothing to society.
If I were that rent seeking parasite, I would prefer you to focus your attention and rage on China instead...
As we see in Ukraine, the decision to try and flex military strength can be quite disastrous when you demonstrate your immense military is actually a paper tiger - it generates complaints domestically, and erodes credibility abroad, to say nothing of the various other negative consequences of fighting a prolonged conflict.
China is a land power, always has been, always should be. It has no experience conducting naval operations, exceedingly few foreign bases for supporting long range naval power projection, and it is totally reliant on the maritime status quo. China likely wants to deter anyone from getting ideas about interdicting its shipping, and is probably happy to find a use for its excess steel production, but it would be crazy to pick a fight with the world's dominant naval power, which is coincidentally one of the world's premiere nuclear powers, and geographically unassailable by conventional forces, and there really isn't any naval opponent that isn't allied with one or the other. It's almost certainly intended as a fleet in being, at most an insurance policy in case America becomes isolationist in the next few years and there is a power vacuum.