> you’ll see that he cares a lot about the truth.

Didnt he call the cave diver, a pedo and the guy who attacked Pelosi's husband they were in a gay relationship.

He doesn't seem have much of a filter because of his aspergers, but I think he genuinely believed those things. And they are more on the level of calling people names on the playground anyway. In the grand scheme of things, those are pretty shallow "lies".

Oh so it’s ok to lie and call people a pedophile (which is far beyond playground name-calling; from a famous person a statement like that actually carries a lot of weight) if you genuinely believe it and have Asperger’s?

Those might explain his behavior, but it does not excuse it.

Musk fans will contort into pretzels. He genuinely believed it. Just an insult. Just trading shots because the guy called his idea stupid.

It’s the RDF.

I have multiple relatives on the spectrum. None of them baselessly accuse strangers of being pedophiles.

It's not Musk's lack of filter that makes him unhinged and dangerous. It's that he's deeply stupid, insecure, racist, enamored of conspiracy theories, and powerful.

I figure its the chronic drug abuse and constant affirmation he receives from his internet fanboys and enabler yes-men on his board who are financially dependent on him. he doesn't ever receive push-back from anyone so he get more and more divorced form reality.

He's 52. And running multiple companies. Aspergers is not a justification for his shitty behavior (and blaming this behavior on Aspergers harms perception of people with Aspergers)

> If you watch some long form interviews with Elon, you’ll see that he cares a lot about the truth.

You mean the guy who's infamous for lying? The guy who claimed his car was fully self driving more than a decade before it is? The guy who tweeted "funding secured" and facing multiple fraud charges?

Tbh, he wasn’t convicted as far as I know.

But yes, he’s overly optimistic with timelines. He says so himself.

The first time someone is "overly optimistic with a timeline", you should forgive them.

The tenth time, you should have the good sense to realize that they're full of shit and either a habitual liar or utterly incompetent.

Realists are incapable of pushing frontiers.

If you are doing something that has been done before, hire a realist. Your project will ship on time and within budget. If you are doing something that hasn't been done before, you need an optimist. Partly because the realists run for the hills -- they know the odds and the odds are bad -- but also because their hedging behavior will turn your small chance of success into zero chance of success. On these projects, optimism doesn't guarantee success, but pessimism/realism does guarantee failure.

So no, I am not scandalized to find that the world's biggest innovator (I hate his politics, but this is simply the truth) is systematically biased towards optimism. It's not surprising, it is inevitable.

Wright Brothers took a risk and build first planes but didn't have to lie that their planes already left the ground before they did. They didn't claim "it would fly a year from now", they just build it over and over until it flew.

They were optimistic and yet they found a way to be optimistic without claiming anything untruthful.

Clément Ader, on the other hand, claimed that his innovation flew, and was ridiculed when he couldn't proof it.

One look at their works and it's clear who influenced modern planes, and who didn't.

The Wright Brothers are infamous for failing to industrialize their invention -- something that notoriously requires investors and hype. Perhaps they wouldn't have squandered their lead if they had been a bit more public with their hopes and dreams.

There is a difference between saying "we believe we will achieve X in the next year" and "we will achieve X in the next year." Each framing has its advantages and disadvantages, but it's hard to accuse the person who makes the former statement of lying.

>Man who’s the second richest, led companies that made electric cars and reusable rockets

>> Random HN commentator : utterly incompetent

I want what you’re smoking

He may be the second richest but he still doesn’t seem competent enough to provide remotely reasonable estimates.

That, or he’s just a straight up liar who knows the things he says are never going to happen.

Which would you rather it be?

Yes, he is largely incompetent but with a great nose for picking up good companies: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40066514

I'm no fan of Sam Altman, but between the two, Elon lies much more often. He's lied about FSD for years, lied about not selling his Tesla stock, lied about "robotaxies" for years, lied about the roadster for years, lied about "funding secured" for Tesla, lied about his twitter free speech ethos, spreads random lies about people he doesn't like, and so much more. The guy is a compulsive liar.

You could also come up with many examples where he worked hard against repeating lies from others since he often reasons from first principles.

But yes you’re right. The difference is probably whether one "beliefs" Elon is beneficial for the world or not.

> The difference is probably whether one "beliefs" Elon is beneficial for the world or not.

I don't think he matters that much, good or bad. Yes, I know he's a billionaire, but in practical terms he hasn't done much, especially compared to the other tech moguls like jobs, bezos, gates, zuck, larry/sergy etc. All those others oversaw companies that completely revolutionized life for everyone on the planet. By comparison, Tesla makes really fun luxury cars that most people can't afford, and all his other companies are vaporware besides spacex which has almost no practical impact on people's lives. You could argue starlink has some impact, but for the vast majority of the population that can afford starlink, terrestrial broadband fills their need.