Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by kjkjadksj on Monday May 13, 2024 @10:22PM
(#40351017)
Theres so much pent up money that Powell just has to tweet a picture of a dove and the market will go up 15% the next day. Markets been lumbering up since mid april despite all the doom and gloom narrative with the interest rate and continually being told no cuts for now by the fed the entire time. Anytime the fed says no cuts recently, seems like its Powell creating a buying opportunity more than anything and a week later the ship is back on course. Whenever they do cut rates this year there will be fireworks.
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by lazide on Tuesday May 14, 2024 @10:22AM
(#40355529)
The issue the Fed is trying to resolve is exactly too much money freely moving around - also known as inflation.
We’ll see when things change, but for now they’re not freeing up cash. And the housing market in particular’s momentum has been steadily changing.
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by dilyevsky on Monday May 13, 2024 @10:06PM
(#40350937)
I hear predictions of crash every year since 2012-2013 at least. Foreclosures are still low. Inventory rising is locale dependent thing, e.g Palm Springs - basically vacation home flips/airbnbs. I dont see how it could crash when stocks are still at all times high
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by lazide on Tuesday May 14, 2024 @11:11AM
(#40356023)
Many of the stock market changes are in line with inflation, but yup - we could be in for more pump. We’ll see how it goes.
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by pylua on Monday May 13, 2024 @09:32PM
(#40350671)
I see your point, but a crash would be extremely bad for the states budget, which is already struggling. Hopefully a small correction at most.
The market also does seem strangely stubborn to correct.
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by lazide on Monday May 13, 2024 @09:33PM
(#40350683)
This will not be a small correction.
Re:High housing costs may be California's biggest problem
by testval123 on Monday May 13, 2024 @10:45PM
(#40351151)
So many people 'want' a correction that it's clear there is a ton of demand. Ergo, I wouldn't be too hopeful.
[https://www.redfin.com/state/California/housing-market]
When the line keeps going up and to the right, everyone builds that into their spreadsheets and times are good.
When the line starts going down and to the right, they hope it’s temporary. But after awhile, they need to update their spreadsheets - and then times are bad.
As long as the fed keeps rates high, the crash is inevitable. I give it another year or two.
Bankruptcies are likely to be incredibly painful.